Putin’s Escape Plan: Fact or Fiction?

Russian President Vladimir Putin is one of the most powerful and influential leaders in the world. He has been ruling Russia since 2000, either as president or prime minister, and has consolidated his control over the country’s political, economic, and military spheres. He has also been involved in many international conflicts and controversies, such as the annexation of Crimea, the intervention in Syria, the poisoning of dissidents, and the hacking of elections.

However, despite his apparent strength and confidence, Putin may not be as secure and comfortable as he seems. According to some sources, he has an escape plan in place in case he faces a military defeat or a political crisis in his country. The plan, reportedly called “Noah’s Ark”, involves fleeing to South America, either Venezuela or Argentina, where he and his allies have been buying properties and securing residency rights . The plan is said to be overseen by Yury Kurilin, a former vice president of Rosneft, a Russian energy company, who has American citizenship and connections.

The escape plan was allegedly devised in the spring of 2023, when the tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated over the disputed Donbass region. Putin was said to be prepared to activate the plan in August 2023, when a group of Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group attempted a coup in Belarus, a close ally of Russia. The coup was foiled by the Belarusian security forces, who arrested several Wagner operatives.

But why would Putin need an escape plan? And how realistic is it? In this blog post, we will try to answer these questions and explore the possible motivations and implications of Putin’s alleged contingency plan.

Why would Putin need an escape plan?

Putin may have several reasons to consider an escape plan in case things get very bad for him in Russia. Some of these reasons are:

• Military defeat: Putin has been involved in several military conflicts and interventions in recent years, such as in Ukraine, Syria, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh. These conflicts have increased his popularity at home, but also his enemies abroad. He may face a military defeat or a retaliation from NATO or other regional powers that could threaten his regime or his personal safety .
• Political crisis: Putin has faced growing opposition and protests from various segments of the Russian society, such as liberals, nationalists, environmentalists, and religious groups. He has also faced challenges from within his own elite circle, such as former allies who have turned against him or rivals who have ambitions to succeed him. He may face a political crisis or a coup that could overthrow his regime or force him to resign .
• Economic collapse: Putin has presided over a stagnating economy that has been hit hard by the sanctions imposed by the West, the drop in oil prices, the coronavirus pandemic, and the corruption and mismanagement of his cronies. He has failed to deliver on his promises of improving the living standards and welfare of the Russian people. He may face an economic collapse or a social unrest that could erode his legitimacy and support .

How realistic is Putin’s escape plan?

Putin’s escape plan may sound like a plot from a spy thriller or a dystopian novel, but how realistic is it? Can he really pull it off? And what would be the consequences if he does? Some of the factors that could affect the feasibility and desirability of Putin’s escape plan are:

• China: Putin initially considered China as a possible destination for his evacuation, but later rejected the idea because he feared that the Chinese government would not cooperate with him or respect him as a “loser”. He also worried that China would take advantage of Russia’s weakness and assert its dominance over its vast territory and resources. China is Russia’s largest trading partner and strategic ally, but also its potential competitor and rival.
• Venezuela and Argentina: Putin chose Venezuela and Argentina as his preferred options because they have friendly relations with Russia and are relatively isolated from Western influence . However, these countries are not very stable or safe themselves. Venezuela is facing a severe economic and humanitarian crisis, as well as political turmoil and international isolation. Argentina is facing a debt crisis and social discontent. Both countries are vulnerable to external pressure and interference from the US and other regional powers .
• West: Putin may hope that by fleeing to South America, he would avoid being captured or prosecuted by the West for his alleged crimes and violations. However, this may not be the case. The West may still pursue him and his assets through legal and diplomatic channels, or even covert operations. The West may also impose sanctions and restrictions on the countries that host him or cooperate with him .
• Russia: Putin may think that by escaping to South America, he would preserve his legacy and influence in Russia. However, this may not be the case. Putin may lose his credibility and popularity among the Russian people, who may see him as a coward and a traitor. Putin may also lose his control and loyalty among the Russian elite, who may turn against him or defect to his opponents. Putin may also trigger a power vacuum and a chaos in Russia, which could lead to violence and instability .

Conclusion

Putin’s escape plan is a fascinating and controversial topic that has sparked a lot of speculation and debate. It is not clear whether the plan is real or just a rumor. It could be a contingency plan that Putin has prepared for the worst-case scenario, or it could be a propaganda tool that his enemies have used to undermine his legitimacy and popularity. Either way, it shows that Putin is facing increasing pressure and uncertainty in his domestic and foreign affairs, and that he may have to make some difficult choices in the near future.