Putin’s 2024 Quagmire: A Cocktail of Constitutional Tweaks, Declining Popularity, and Growing Opposition
As Russia inches toward its 2024 presidential election, the horizon looks increasingly complicated for the long-standing figure at the Kremlin’s helm: President Vladimir Putin. The electoral landscape has undergone a seismic transformation over the years, and 2024 will likely not be business-as-usual. To the casual observer, Putin may seem unassailable, but dig deeper and one finds a complex web of challenges that even he can’t easily sidestep. Let’s dissect some of these challenges that threaten to upend Putin’s seemingly monolithic rule.
The 2020 Constitutional Reform: A Double-Edged Sword
The constitutional reform that emerged in 2020 ostensibly wiped Putin’s term slate clean, allowing him to run for another two terms until 2036. Ostensibly a shrewd political maneuver, it came at a high cost — credibility. Touted by critics as a “constitutional coup,” the move conspicuously eroded faith in the Russian democratic process, not just internationally but domestically as well. In addition, the new candidate restrictions conveniently limit the pool of potential challengers to Putin, especially from the opposition.
However, here’s the catch: by changing the rules of the game, Putin also changed the stakes. There’s a widening chasm between the state’s definition of democracy and the people’s lived experiences of it. This incongruity might become a liability, further widening the already gaping trust deficit between the Kremlin and the public.
Declining Popularity: The Achilles Heel
No leader can rule solely by dint of authority; a modicum of popularity is essential. Putin’s popularity graph, once soaring, has seen a downward trajectory due to an ensemble of crises: an economic recession, the botched handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the quagmire in Ukraine, among others. Furthermore, allegations of corruption, crackdowns on civil society, and international isolation have only added fuel to the fire.
The decline in Putin’s popularity isn’t merely academic — it has practical consequences. The 2021 parliamentary elections showed that United Russia, the political party tethered to Putin, suffered significant electoral setbacks. This doesn’t bode well for Putin, as it serves as a barometer of national sentiment, suggesting that his ‘invincibility’ might be waning.
Opposition and Civil Society: The David to Putin’s Goliath?
What has markedly changed in Russia in the last few years is the emboldening of opposition and civil society movements. The increasingly influential figure of Alexei Navalny stands as a testament to this. Despite being poisoned and incarcerated, Navalny has led a concerted campaign against the Kremlin. Although legally barred from running, Navalny has turned adversity into opportunity — endorsing candidates, revealing corruption, and utilizing ‘smart voting’ strategies.
This presents a new kind of challenge for Putin. The opposition is no longer a fractured conglomerate; it’s increasingly becoming a coordinated, calculated force, leveraging both social media and grassroots campaigning to tip the scales. Even if they cannot unseat Putin directly, they can chip away at his power by galvanizing public sentiment against him.
International Pressure: The World is Watching
Last but not least, let’s talk about the elephant in the room — international sanctions. Whether it’s due to human rights violations, election interference, or territorial invasions, Russia under Putin has increasingly become an international pariah. These sanctions are not mere diplomatic slaps on the wrist; they have tangible economic and reputational consequences for Russia. Putin’s aggressive foreign policies may satiate nationalist pride momentarily, but they jeopardize Russia’s long-term interests, deepening its international isolation.
The Road Ahead
As we head toward 2024, the complexities are immense. Putin’s choice to run again is widely anticipated, yet uncertainty prevails. What’s clear is that Putin faces a maze of challenges that are deeply interconnected, both reinforcing and exacerbating each other.
We are at an inflection point where either the dam breaks, releasing a torrent of pent-up political energy, or Putin’s regime finds a way to plug the gaps and soldier on. It’s a story still in the making, a political drama that deserves our rapt attention. But one thing is for sure — Putin’s path to another term is not the cakewalk it once might have been. And that, in itself, says something has fundamentally shifted in the Russian political landscape.
