Philippines’ Delicate Balance between National Interests and Regional Power Dynamics
The South China Sea dispute has become a flashpoint for the Philippines, which faces a dilemma between Chinese economic allure and longstanding Western alliances. As the geopolitical tectonic plates shift in the region, Manila has to balance its national interests and regional power dynamics. It’s a delicate game of foreign policy chess, played against a backdrop of rising tensions, internal challenges, and the ever-looming presence of two superpowers: China and the United States. The Philippines has a mutual defense treaty with the US since 1951, but also seeks to benefit from China’s investments and trade. However, China’s expansive claims and aggressive actions in the South China Sea have infringed on the Philippines’ sovereignty and maritime rights. The current president, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., has vowed to protect the Philippines’ own interests, but also maintain good relations with the rest of the world. He has to navigate a multipolar world and avoid being caught in the crossfire of great power rivalry.
South China Sea: The Stage for a Proxy Chessboard
The South China Sea dispute is far from new, but its importance in the global geopolitical landscape continues to grow. It is a treasure trove of untapped natural resources, such as oil, gas, and fish, critical shipping routes that carry about a third of global trade, and a growing stick of contention between the Philippines and its much larger neighbor, China. Despite winning a landmark ruling from an international arbitration tribunal in 2016 that invalidated most of China’s expansive claims over the waterway based on its historical “nine-dash line”, the Duterte administration has largely opted for a more conciliatory approach, seeking economic benefits and avoiding direct confrontation with Beijing. Critics argue that this compromises Philippine sovereignty and security, and the intermittent presence of Chinese coast guard and militia vessels in the area adds fuel to that fire. Recently, the two countries have accused each other of provoking collisions near a contested reef, raising the risk of escalation and drawing international attention.
The South China Sea dispute is far from new, but its importance in the global geopolitical landscape continues to grow. It is a treasure trove of untapped natural resources, such as oil, gas, and fish, critical shipping routes, carrying about a third of global trade, and a growing stick of contention between the Philippines and its much larger neighbor, China.
Allies in the Pacific: A Rebalancing Act
The Philippines plays a crucial role in the security architecture of the Pacific, as it is strategically located along the South China Sea and hosts several U.S. military bases. The U.S., together with allies such as Australia, Japan, and South Korea, considers the Philippines as a partner in countering China’s growing assertiveness and aggression in the region. This is not only based on a mutual defense treaty signed in 1951, but also on a long-standing alliance that dates back to the Cold War era, when the U.S. and the Philippines fought against communism. The alliance is also strengthened by shared values and mutual interests, such as democracy, human rights, trade, and counterterrorism.
The United States has been conducting regular “freedom of navigation” operations (FONOPs) and joint exercises with the Philippines in the South China Sea, where both countries have overlapping claims with China. These activities, while angering China, which views them as a violation of its sovereignty and security, serve to reassure other nations in the region, such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia, that the international “rules of the road” apply to everyone, including Beijing. The FONOPs are also meant to uphold the 2016 arbitral ruling that invalidated most of China’s expansive claims over the waterway. The joint exercises, which involve thousands of troops and various weapons systems, demonstrate the strength of the alliance between the US and the Philippines and their commitment to regional stability.
Internal Struggles: The Invisible Hand Guiding Foreign Policy
While these international dramas unfold, the average Filipino is grappling with challenges that are far more immediate: poverty, inflation, energy security, and inadequate infrastructure. These aren’t just internal issues; they fundamentally shape the country’s foreign policy decisions. According to the World Bank, poverty in the Philippines rose to 18.1 percent in 2021 despite large government assistance. Inflation rates also increased to 4.8 percent in 2021, driven by higher food and fuel prices. Energy security remains a concern, as the country relies heavily on imported fossil fuels and faces frequent power outages. Infrastructure development is hampered by a poor business environment, weak coordination, and low public spending. These domestic challenges limit the Philippines’ ability to pursue its national interests and assert its sovereignty in the region.
When a significant portion of your population lives below the poverty line, when inflation rates continue to rise, and when you’re struggling with energy security, decisions about geopolitical alliances are not just made in diplomatic corridors. They’re made in the homes of ordinary Filipinos who are more concerned about putting food on the table today than about the balance of power in the Pacific decades from now. These domestic challenges shape the country’s foreign policy choices, which often involve trade-offs between economic opportunities and national sovereignty. The Philippines has to navigate carefully between China’s economic allure and its territorial assertiveness, and the United States’ security guarantees and its strategic interests. Finding this balance requires wisdom, foresight, and a commitment to the welfare and aspirations of millions of Filipinos.
