Open-Source Intelligence: Lessons from the Ukraine War

Open-source intelligence, or OSINT, is the process of collecting and analyzing information from publicly available sources, such as the internet, mass media, academic publications, and government reports. OSINT has become a crucial component of modern intelligence operations, especially in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, where it helps to reveal the dynamics and actors of the war. Tamir Hayman, a former Israeli intelligence officer and an OSINT expert, highlights both the advantages and the challenges of using OSINT in real-world scenarios, and draws valuable lessons for Israel and other countries that face similar threats. OSINT can provide timely and relevant insights, often in real-time, that can complement or even surpass other forms of intelligence gathering. However, OSINT also poses some risks, such as data overload, disinformation, ethical dilemmas, and operational security. Therefore, OSINT requires a strategic framework that defines its objectives, methods, sources, tools, and ethical guidelines. OSINT also benefits from collaboration with external stakeholders, such as academia, industry, media, and allied intelligence agencies. OSINT is not a new phenomenon, but it has gained prominence and popularity in the digital age, where information is abundant and accessible. OSINT is not only used by state actors, but also by non-state actors, such as journalists, researchers, activists, and hackers. OSINT can be used for various purposes, such as technical investigation of a target website, analytics and tracking or exposing human rights violations. OSINT is a powerful tool that can enhance intelligence capabilities and operations, but it also requires careful handling and management to avoid pitfalls.

A High-Resolution View of the Battlefield

Firstly, let’s talk about the obvious advantages of open-source intelligence (OSINT). In the context of war, where ground realities shift swiftly and unpredictably, OSINT provides a more accessible and often quicker way to gather crucial information. It can offer military and intelligence agencies a nearly real-time view of enemy troop movements, public sentiment, and even strategic installations. Satellite imagery can reveal the massing of troops or construction of fortifications, while chatter on social media may offer clues to public morale or even leak military plans. When traditional methods like human intelligence (HUMINT) or signals intelligence (SIGINT) may take weeks or months to produce actionable intelligence, OSINT can provide vital data in a matter of hours or even minutes. OSINT has played a significant role in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, where various non-state actors, such as journalists, researchers, and citizens, have used publicly available sources to expose Russian war crimes, verify civilian casualties, and track material losses. OSINT has also helped Ukraine to counter Russian disinformation and propaganda campaigns, and to gain international support and assistance.

The Crowdsourced Intelligence Ecosystem

Non-state actors, such as journalists, independent researchers, and even ordinary citizens, play an important role in the field of open-source intelligence (OSINT). They collect, analyze, and disseminate information from publicly available sources, such as social media, satellite imagery, or online databases. Intelligence agencies can benefit from this “crowdsourced” information, which can complement their own classified sources and methods. Moreover, intelligence agencies can interact with these non-state actors, sometimes providing them with feedback, guidance, or support. This synergy creates a collaborative and dynamic intelligence gathering operation, which can enhance the situational awareness, accuracy, and timeliness of intelligence products.

Data Glut and Disinformation Quagmires

The first of the challenges of OSINT is the overwhelming volume of data. OSINT sources generate petabytes of information daily, in various formats and languages. Finding relevant and reliable data is like looking for a needle in a haystack on steroids. To cope with this, OSINT systems need sophisticated analytical tools, artificial intelligence, and machine learning to collect, organize, and process data efficiently. However, even with these technologies, there is still a risk of data saturation, where critical intelligence is buried under the flood of irrelevant or redundant data. Therefore, OSINT systems also need effective data management strategies, such as data integration, aggregation, and validation.

Credibility is a key challenge for open-source intelligence (OSINT). Open-source does not guarantee reliability or accuracy. The internet is full of false, misleading, or biased information that can be used for various purposes, such as influencing public opinion, spreading rumors, or undermining adversaries. Intelligence agencies need to be careful and critical when using OSINT, verifying the sources, checking the facts, and assessing the context. This is not always easy, especially when dealing with large amounts of data, complex situations, or covert operations. OSINT analysts need to use various tools and techniques, such as cross-referencing, metadata analysis, geolocation, and reverse image search, to validate and corroborate their findings. They also need to be aware of the ethical and legal implications of using OSINT, such as respecting privacy rights, complying with data protection laws, and avoiding harm to innocent parties. OSINT is a valuable and powerful source of intelligence, but it requires careful and responsible use.

A Framework for the Future

Hayman’s call for a strategic framework around OSINT is timely and crucial, especially in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, where OSINT has played a vital role in deciphering the complex chessboard of war. OSINT is not just a tool but a powerful instrument that needs to be wielded with the utmost care, as it involves collecting and analyzing publicly available information that may have legal, ethical, and security implications. Defining objectives, laying down ethical guidelines, and setting up dedicated OSINT units are steps in the right direction to ensure the effective and responsible use of OSINT. So is collaboration with external stakeholders, such as journalists, researchers, and civil society groups, who contribute to the OSINT ecosystem and may offer valuable insights and perspectives. Intelligence agencies do not operate in vacuums. Partnerships with academia, industry, and even allied intelligence agencies could be invaluable in honing the OSINT skills and capabilities, as well as sharing best practices and lessons learned from different contexts and scenarios.

Final Thoughts

As we look at the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, it’s clear that the future of intelligence gathering is already here, and it’s open-source. The question is not whether OSINT will be a cornerstone of future military operations but how we will navigate its nuanced complexities to maximize its potential while minimizing its risks. For Israel, and indeed for any nation looking to bolster its intelligence capabilities, the lessons from Ukraine offer a blueprint laden with both promise and caution. Like any powerful tool, OSINT’s value lies in the skill of the craftsman wielding it. It is undoubtedly an asset, but one that requires meticulous management, ethical oversight, and continual refinement.