OPEC+ Compliance Breakdown: The Circus of Oil Clowns (February 2025)

6 min readFeb 2, 2025

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the OPEC+ Grand Oil Circus! Step right up and watch as a bunch of old guys in robes and suits pretend they control the price of oil while secretly stabbing each other in the back. It’s a delightful little scam where everyone cheats, no one listens, and Saudi Arabia keeps footing the bill.

1. OPEC+ Members: Masters of “Not My Problem”

For years, OPEC+ has enforced production cuts to “stabilize” oil prices (translation: screw consumers while keeping their pet projects funded). But in 2025, most members are treating these production limits like New Year’s resolutions — completely ignored by February.

The Star Cheaters of OPEC+:

Kazakhstan

Their quota says 1.468 million barrels per day, but Kazakhstan sees that as a “serving suggestion.”
With Chevron expanding its Tengiz oilfield, they’re basically saying, “Yeah, we’ll cut production… right after hell freezes over.”

Iraq

Overproducing 165,000 barrels per day beyond its limit.
Because when your government spends money like a teenager with their parents’ credit card, the only solution is to sell more oil.

UAE (The Sneaky One)

Officially playing nice, but secretly expanding production capacity in Abu Dhabi.
It’s like telling your diet coach you only eat salad while stuffing a cheeseburger into your pocket.

Russia (The Double Dealer)

“Yes, we’re reducing exports,” they say, while selling oil to China and India at a discount so low it makes Walmart jealous.

Why Are They Cheating?

Financial Desperation: These guys have big bills and bad credit.
Greed: Because cutting production means cutting profits, and that’s just unthinkable.
No Enforcement: OPEC+ has all the authority of a substitute teacher. “Stop cheating!” No one listens.

2. Saudi Arabia: The Only Guy Trying to Hold This Dumpster Fire Together

Saudi Arabia has been the responsible adult in the room, cutting its own production to compensate for everyone else’s BS. But now they’re getting fed up.

Why Saudi Arabia Is Losing Its Mind:

Budget Pressure: They need oil above $80 per barrel to keep funding futuristic cities and indoor ski resorts in the desert.
Market Share Loss: While they play by the rules, U.S., Brazil, and Guyana are out there stealing customers like a shady used car dealer.

What Happens If Saudi Arabia Snaps?

Scenario 1: Keep Cutting (Unlikely) — They keep taking the hits and hope everyone else plays nice (spoiler: they won’t).
Scenario 2: Flood the Market (More Likely) — Saudi Arabia says, “Screw it,” pumps like crazy, and crashes prices into the $60s, forcing weaker producers to cry uncle.
Scenario 3: Form a New, Less Stupid OPEC+ — Kick out the cheaters and start fresh. Problem is, that leaves them with, what? Themselves and Kuwait?

3. Russia: The “We’re Not Cheating, We Swear” Champion

Russia’s commitment to OPEC+ is about as reliable as a weather forecast. They say they’re reducing output, but somehow, oil keeps flowing to China and India like a fire hose.

What If Russia Ditches OPEC+?

OPEC+ loses 10 million barrels per day of production power overnight.
Saudi Arabia and Russia go from “frenemies” to full-blown competitors.
China and India laugh all the way to the bank.

4. The U.S. & China: Poking OPEC+ With a Stick

Just to make things worse, outside forces are also kicking OPEC+ while it stumbles.

United States: “Screw You” Strategy

The U.S. is dumping oil from its reserves whenever prices get too high, making OPEC+ look like a bunch of amateurs.
If the new administration keeps playing this game, OPEC might as well be a social club.

China: “Meh, We’ll Buy Less”

China’s economy is slowing, and EV sales are rising.
That means less oil demand, which screws over OPEC+ even more.

5. Where This Freak Show Is Heading

Scenario 1: OPEC+ Stumbles Along Like a Drunk at Closing Time (Most Likely)

They still exist, but nobody really listens anymore.
Saudi Arabia starts investing more in renewables, hydrogen, and therapy.

Scenario 2: OPEC+ Breaks Apart Like a Bad Boy Band (Possible)

Russia ditches, Saudi Arabia cranks up production, and prices nosedive.
The market turns into a free-for-all where everyone undercuts each other like a garage sale.

Scenario 3: “OPEC Lite” Forms (Least Likely)

Saudi Arabia starts a new group with only the trustworthy members.
Problem is, there aren’t many trustworthy members.

6. Final Thoughts: OPEC+ Is on Life Support

Saudi Arabia is sick of being the responsible one.
Russia is doing its own thing.
OPEC+ cheaters are partying like it’s 1999.
The U.S. and China are throwing wrenches into the system.

The bottom line? OPEC+ is slowly becoming just another loud, pointless organization. If this keeps up, by 2030, it’ll be as relevant as a fax machine.

Buckle up, folks. The oil market is about to get even dumber.

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