NATO’s New Battle Plan: A Renewed Focus or a Cold War Relic?
In 1967, while the world was swaying to the Beatles and witnessing the marriage of Elvis and Priscilla, NATO was busy crafting its big battle plan. A blueprint that remained untouched for decades, until just three weeks ago. A new plan has been driven forward, updating NATO’s preparedness in the face of renewed threats. But the question remains: Has NATO truly shaken off its Cold War mindset?
The Old Days and the New Threats
During the Cold War, NATO’s plan was simple: know where the East is. Defense budgets were robust, and Western societies understood the threat. But with the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the edges began to fray. The concept of massive standing defense alliances seemed outdated, and the focus shifted to counter-insurgency.
As recently as November 2021, Britain’s then Prime Minister Boris Johnson declared the age of big tank battles over. But the military knew better. U.S. General Chris Cavoli made it his mission to update NATO’s plans, the first in nearly 60 years.
SHAPE
The military side of NATO is based in Mons, Belgium, at SHAPE (Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe). A rugged headquarters, far from the swanky glass structures in Brussels, SHAPE is where the beefy military plans are drawn up.
The new plan, endorsed at the NATO Summit in Vilnius, is based on three regional plans covering the North, Center, and South. Overlaying these are concepts for space, cyber, logistics, and special forces.
A Return to Collective Defense
General Sir Tim Radford explained that NATO had been distracted by different types of warfare and had now returned firmly to collective defense. The Sleeping Bear had woken up, and so had NATO.
In the near future, specific roles or territories will be assigned to each nation, a return to the old days. The new plan will also set priorities for investment, a tricky task that will require diplomacy and force of personality.
A Total Revamp
If successful, this will be a total revamp of how NATO organizes itself and commands operations. The pledge of spending 2% of GDP on defense by 2024 will be a minimum requirement, good news as currently only 11 allies make the bill.
Generals Cavoli and Radford, along with NATO’s political leaders, have done sterling work updating the alliance. But has NATO totally shaken off that Cold War mindset?
Broader Concerns
With most of Europe in NATO, is NATO responsible for all Europe’s security concerns? The population of Africa is set to double by 2050, placing migratory pressure on Europe’s and NATO’s Southern flank. Islamic extremism and terrorism are real threats, and what of China?
Even if you ignore the idea of NATO morphing into a community of values, military action against Taiwan, for example, will draw huge American resources away from Europe, which may make a bruised and opportunistic Russia do something stupid again.
Conclusion
NATO’s new battle plan is a significant step in the right direction, but it’s just the start. Gaining consensus for the plan by all 31 NATO Nations was challenging, and not everyone may agree with the forceful suggestions on where the defense budget should go.
The world has changed since 1967, and NATO must adapt to these changes. The new plan is a promising beginning, but it must be flexible and responsive to the evolving global landscape. The Cold War may be over, but the battle for a secure and peaceful future continues. The question is, is NATO ready for what lies ahead?
