MIRVs and the Resurgence of the Nuclear Arms Race: A Global Threat Unveiled
In 2023, 32 years since the end of the Cold War, one would like to think that the chaos of a nuclear arms race was long behind us. Unfortunately, though, in February of this year, tensions between Russia and the US over Ukraine and Vladimir Putin withdrawing from arms agreements and waving his monster Satan 2 MIRV missile about, has brought us back to the precipice of a nuclear standoff.
MIRV stands for Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles, which essentially means it’s a missile that can carry several warheads that can be aimed at different targets. The term is usually applied to intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) carrying thermonuclear warheads, allowing for the horrifying possibility of targeted nuclear cluster bombing.
In a typical MIRV launch sequence, the missile is ejected from its silo and taken to altitude in three boost stages. Then, 180 seconds after launch, the missile reaches suborbital height, and the post-boost vehicle, known as a ‘bus’, breaks away. This ‘bus’, which houses the warheads, then maneuvers itself to prepare for deployment. Finally, the warheads are released, and a flight computer guides each one to its target.
Stopping a missile with multiple warheads provides four clear offensive advantages. Firstly, more warheads mean more damage. Seven nuclear warheads will do more damage than one nuclear warhead. Secondly, MIRVs are excellent at overwhelming anti-ballistic missile defenses (ABMs), which are often designed to bring down just a single warhead at a time. Thirdly, MIRVs have enough room to carry penetration aids, devices that increase the likelihood of the warheads evading ABMs and hitting their target. Lastly, MIRVs can attack multiple targets simultaneously, up to 1500 kilometers apart.
The development of MIRVs significantly raised the risk of nuclear war and escalated the arms race. This was the exact opposite of the stabilizing effect that they were meant to achieve. This is because they massively increased the incentive for both sides to strike first. They upset the balance of warheads and silos. Before MIRVs, the first country to strike with single warhead missiles could hit a few silos but had no chance of destroying them all. This would virtually guarantee a nuclear counter-strike and mutually assured destruction. Therefore, nobody wanted to go first. Now, MIRVs upset this delicate balance by massively increasing the number of missiles per silo. So theoretically, one strike from an arsenal of MIRVs could destroy every silo of their opponents, leaving them unable to retaliate.
The only exception to this is MIRV submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). These are considered invulnerable to attack, so they don’t raise the same issues as their land-based counterparts. Of course, this only matters if both sides have MIRVed weapons. But as they were in an arms race, Soviets were quick to catch up.
Unfortunately, just six months after the agreement was signed, the U.S discovered a Soviet combat brigade in Cuba and withdrew from the treaty. It took until 1991 and the dissolution of the Soviet Union for the U.S and Russia to agree to a new treaty known as the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty or START ONE, which limited nuclear warhead numbers to six thousand.
Technically, New START is still in effect, but on the 21st of February 2023, Vladimir Putin delivered a presidential address in which he announced the suspension of Russia’s participation in the agreement. The root of the issue stems from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in which the U.S has taken the side of Ukraine and is providing them with lethal aid. So, Russia no longer wants the U.S to access its nuclear facilities for the required inspections.
What makes Putin’s announcement particularly terrifying is that Russia is edging ever closer to a successful test of the RS-28 Sarmat ICBM.
Fortunately, Satan II failed at its most recent test, which was conducted symbolically on the 18th of February 2023, just two days before U.S President Biden arrived in Ukraine. Putin has also agreed to abide by the numerical limits of New START until it expires in 2026. Unfortunately, this only gives the US three years to negotiate a new nuclear arms agreement to supersede it, and with the current tensions, that just seems next to impossible.
So, despite MIRVs being a bad idea from the outset and proven as a tool for destabilization in the nuclear arena, here we are, staring down the barrel of an arms race involving multiple nations, completely ungoverned by any treaties. Well done, humanity.