The Future of Warfare: Lessons from the Ukraine War
At a cursory glance, the war in Ukraine may appear as a spectral return to the early 20th-century conflicts, with its trench-like landscapes reminiscent of the battles fought in 1915. But to assume so would be an oversimplification. This war, played out on the battlefields of Eastern Europe, delivers vital insights into the character of the conflicts to come.
The Ukraine War reminds us of the immutable importance of ‘boots on the ground.’ Russia’s move to tighten its conscription law, pressing more men into the battle, serves as a stark reminder of the continued relevance of human warriors. However, the story does not end here. The war also underscores the significant role of technology in modern warfare. We are in the throes of revolutions in military affairs, brought about predominantly by technological advancements. Drones, as evidenced in Ukraine, will undeniably play a significant role in future conflicts, including any potential Taiwan-China standoff.
Technology in warfare has evolved at a breakneck pace, leading to a new landscape of combat. This shift may herald a time where the very nature of war itself undergoes a metamorphosis.
One of the most conspicuous transformations on the battlefield is the extensive use of drones. In Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, a company called AirLogix, led by Vitalii Kolesnichenko, produces drones for the military. From reconnaissance to kamikaze drones, the company has already sent over 20 systems to the frontline, marking the culmination of tireless research and development.
Both Russia and Ukraine have been deploying an unprecedented number of drones onto the battlefield. Ukrainian armed forces are estimated to be losing around 10,000 drones a month, which underscores the drones’ expendability but not their indispensability.
These drones, whether tasked with search-and-destroy missions or providing guidance for artillery batteries, have transformed the battlefield. Without these expendable ‘eyes and ears,’ the shooters would be nearly blind. This realization underlines the valuable lesson of future warfare: quantity matters. As we Westerners are reminded, warfare demands more than shallow arsenals; it requires a substantial number of drones, ammunition, and, well, everything.
However, the intelligence collected by drones is useful only when it can be effectively communicated to the wider force. This is where Starlink, a satellite constellation owned by SpaceX, comes into play. With over 4,000 low-orbit satellites providing off-grid internet access, Starlink serves as a lifeline, especially when heavy artillery relentlessly batters ground-based utilities. Starlink facilitates the swift sharing of drone-acquired images, linking targets with the nearest artillery team, thereby revolutionizing battlefield communication.
Countries around the world are closely monitoring these developments. The Chinese military, cognizant of the American intelligence and digital network’s power, acknowledges the necessity of waging similar warfare. Taiwan, consistently in China’s crosshairs, understands the potential vulnerability of its undersea internet cables and sees immense value in a Starlink-type constellation in any future conflict.
While Starlink expedites secure information sharing, artificial intelligence (AI) helps make sense of this information. Generals in Ukraine are already using AI technology for attack planning, resource allocation, and time management, acting as a Google Maps for armies.
Artificial intelligence also aids in shortening kill chains, speeding up the process from identifying a target to destroying it. With satellites, radar, and drones, the battlefield inundates us with data. The ability to leverage AI to sort through this information provides a decisive advantage in terms of speed and decision-making. Moreover, companies like Shield AI are pioneering an “AI pilot,” AI software capable of flying unmanned combat vehicles. This indicates a future where unmanned systems might outnumber human warfighters on the front lines.
While the world grapples with the potential perils of delegating the decision to kill to an algorithm, the United States and several Western countries have made a conscious decision to always have a human in or on the decision-making loop. Nonetheless, over 100 countries already have military systems with some degree of autonomy, pointing to the potential advantages of autonomous weaponry.
Yet, the role of AI should not be exaggerated. AI remains brittle and struggles with unexpected situations, a characteristic that is ill-suited to warfare’s inherent uncertainty and friction. Even as technology advances, wars still involve soldiers, bullets, and missiles. They still result in deaths, injuries, and trauma.
Even as the theater of conflict shifts to other arenas like the South China Sea, the specter of cyber warfare looms large. In lieu of launching a traditional invasion, China may resort to cyber warfare in a potential conflict with Taiwan. The Chinese military’s three-warfare doctrine, which includes psychological warfare, is made considerably more potent with the advent of cyber warfare.
Cyber warfare could provide a cheaper and less risky avenue for conflict, but it does not negate the brutal reality of war. Even in conflicts replete with technological sophistication, we should never lose sight of the human cost. Ultimately, war remains a human endeavor, a violent clash of arms where societies are ravaged, and young lives are lost in alarming numbers.
As we traverse the new frontiers of warfare, the lessons from the Ukraine War serve as a crucial guide. They make us realize that technology, for all its transformative potential, can never truly erase the human element from the equation of war. The tragedy of war remains as it always has been — a cataclysm where the best of a generation pays the ultimate price.
