Israeli Nuclear Deterrence: Between Secrecy and Ambiguity
Israel is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, although it has never officially confirmed or denied it. This policy of deliberate ambiguity is part of Israel’s nuclear deterrence strategy, which aims to prevent or deter a large-scale conventional or unconventional attack by its regional adversaries, especially Iran. However, this strategy also poses some challenges and risks for Israel, as it faces a changing and uncertain strategic environment, as well as international pressure and scrutiny. In this article, we will explore some of the origins, features, and implications of Israel’s nuclear deterrence, and how it affects its security and stability in the Middle East.
The Origins of Israel’s Nuclear Deterrence
Israel’s nuclear program dates back to the early 1950s, when David Ben-Gurion, the first prime minister of Israel, decided to pursue the development of a nuclear capability as a means of ensuring the survival and independence of the Jewish state, which faced existential threats from its Arab neighbors. Israel received crucial assistance from France, which built the nuclear reactor and the reprocessing plant at Dimona, in the Negev desert, where Israel produced plutonium for its nuclear weapons. Israel also received support from the United States, which provided nuclear technology and materials under the Atoms for Peace program, and turned a blind eye to Israel’s nuclear activities, as long as they remained secret and peaceful.
Israel achieved its nuclear breakthrough in the late 1960s, and is estimated to have conducted its first nuclear test, possibly in collaboration with South Africa, in 1979. Israel is believed to have developed a nuclear triad, consisting of land-based missiles, aircraft, and submarines, capable of delivering nuclear warheads to various targets in the Middle East and beyond. Israel is also believed to have developed a variety of nuclear weapons, ranging from tactical to strategic, and from low-yield to high-yield. According to various sources, Israel’s nuclear arsenal is estimated to range from 80 to 300 warheads, making it one of the most advanced and sophisticated nuclear powers in the world.
The Features of Israel’s Nuclear Deterrence
Israel’s nuclear deterrence is based on two main features: secrecy and ambiguity. Secrecy refers to the concealment and denial of Israel’s nuclear capability, which is intended to avoid international criticism and sanctions, as well as to preserve Israel’s strategic flexibility and freedom of action. Ambiguity refers to the non-disclosure and non-confirmation of Israel’s nuclear capability, which is intended to create uncertainty and doubt in the minds of its adversaries, as well as to signal its resolve and readiness to use it in case of necessity. Israel’s official position on its nuclear status is that it will not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons in the Middle East, but it will not allow any other state to acquire them either.
Israel’s nuclear deterrence is also based on two main principles: opacity and rationality. Opacity refers to the lack of transparency and clarity of Israel’s nuclear doctrine, posture, and policy, which is intended to enhance its deterrence effect and to prevent miscalculation and escalation. Rationality refers to the assumption and expectation that Israel and its adversaries will act rationally and responsibly in a nuclear crisis, and will avoid any action that could trigger a nuclear war. Israel’s nuclear deterrence is thus a subtle and sophisticated game of signals and messages, of hints and threats, of deterrence and reassurance, of escalation and de-escalation.
The Implications of Israel’s Nuclear Deterrence
Israel’s nuclear deterrence has been largely successful in achieving its main objective: to prevent or deter a large-scale conventional or unconventional attack by its regional adversaries, especially Iran, which is suspected of pursuing a nuclear weapons program, despite the 2015 nuclear deal. Israel’s nuclear deterrence has also contributed to its security and stability, as well as to its regional and international influence and prestige. However, Israel’s nuclear deterrence also faces some challenges and risks, as it confronts a changing and uncertain strategic environment, as well as international pressure and scrutiny.
- The challenge of credibility: The challenge of credibility concerns the ability and willingness of Israel to use its nuclear weapons in a credible and effective manner, in order to deter or respond to a nuclear attack or a nuclear threat. The question is whether Israel’s nuclear weapons are reliable and survivable, and whether Israel’s leaders are willing and able to make the ultimate decision to use them, in case of necessity. The answer depends on the technical, operational, and psychological factors that affect Israel’s nuclear capability and command and control, as well as on the political, moral, and legal constraints that limit Israel’s nuclear options and scenarios.
- The challenge of stability: The challenge of stability concerns the maintenance and preservation of the nuclear balance and the nuclear peace in the Middle East, in order to prevent or avoid a nuclear war or a nuclear crisis. The question is whether Israel’s nuclear deterrence is stable and robust, and whether it can cope with the changes and uncertainties that affect the regional security environment, such as the proliferation of nuclear weapons, the emergence of new actors, the escalation of conflicts, and the diffusion of information. The answer depends on the strategic, diplomatic, and military measures that Israel and its adversaries take to enhance or undermine the nuclear deterrence, as well as on the communication and cooperation mechanisms that they establish or neglect to manage the nuclear risks and tensions.
- The challenge of legitimacy: The challenge of legitimacy concerns the acceptance and recognition of Israel’s nuclear status and role by the international community, in order to avoid or reduce the international criticism and sanctions. The question is whether Israel’s nuclear deterrence is legitimate and legal, and whether it complies with the international norms and rules that govern the nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament regime, such as the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which Israel has not signed. The answer depends on the political, ethical, and legal arguments that Israel and its allies use to justify or defend its nuclear deterrence, as well as on the pressure and incentives that the international community exerts or offers to persuade or compel Israel to join the nuclear regime or to renounce its nuclear weapons.
These challenges and risks illustrate the complexity and the controversy of Israel’s nuclear deterrence, and how it affects its security and stability in the Middle East. They also show the need and the difficulty of finding a balance between secrecy and ambiguity, between opacity and rationality, and between credibility and stability, in order to ensure the effectiveness and the legitimacy of Israel’s nuclear deterrence.
