Is Macron more worried about Putin than Zelensky in the war in Ukraine?

The war in Ukraine has been raging for more than eight years, since Russia annexed Crimea and supported separatist rebels in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. The conflict has claimed over 14,000 lives, displaced millions of people, and posed a serious threat to the security and stability of Europe. The international community has tried to intervene and mediate a peaceful solution, but with little success. Among the key players in this crisis are France’s president Emmanuel Macron, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin, and Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky. How do they relate to each other, and what are their interests and goals in this conflict?

Some observers have argued that Macron is more worried about what Putin wants than what Zelensky wants in the war in Ukraine. They claim that Macron is trying to appease Putin and accommodate his demands, while neglecting or undermining Zelensky and his aspirations. They point to some examples of Macron’s actions and statements that seem to favor Russia over Ukraine, such as:

• His call for a “reset” of relations with Russia and a “strategic dialogue” with Putin, despite Russia’s ongoing aggression and violation of international law.
• His proposal of a moratorium on deploying intermediate-range missiles in Europe, which would benefit Russia and weaken NATO’s deterrence.
• His suggestion of a new security architecture for Europe that would include Russia, which could undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and integration with the West.
• His reluctance to provide lethal weapons or military assistance to Ukraine, which could help them defend themselves against Russian attacks.
• His criticism of NATO as “brain-dead” and his questioning of the alliance’s commitment to collective defense, which could erode trust and solidarity among allies.

However, others have argued that Macron is not more worried about Putin than Zelensky, but rather that he is trying to balance the interests and concerns of both sides, while also seeking to de-escalate the conflict and find a diplomatic solution. They claim that Macron is not naive or submissive to Putin, but rather realistic and pragmatic. They point to some examples of Macron’s actions and statements that show his support for Ukraine and his opposition to Russia, such as:

• His affirmation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and his condemnation of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and intervention in Donbas.
• His participation in the EU’s sanctions and diplomatic pressure on Russia, which aim to change its behavior and respect international law.
• His offer of humanitarian and military assistance to Ukraine, such as medical supplies, training, equipment, intelligence, etc…
• His visit to Kyiv several times, and his meeting with Zelensky to discuss the situation and express his solidarity.
• His advocacy for the implementation of the Minsk agreement, which is a roadmap for peace in eastern Ukraine that was co-sponsored by France and Germany.

Therefore, it is not clear whether Macron is more worried about Putin than Zelensky in the war in Ukraine, as this is a matter of interpretation and opinion. What is clear is that Macron is playing an important role as a mediator and a leader in this crisis, as he is one of the few Western politicians who can talk to both Putin and Zelensky. However, his role is also challenged by the complexity and uncertainty of the situation, as the positions of Russia and Ukraine are very different and often incompatible. Moreover, his efforts have not yielded any significant results so far, as Putin has continued his military campaign and refused to negotiate directly with Zelensky. Macron’s challenge is therefore to find a common ground and a peaceful resolution that would satisfy both parties, as well as preserve the stability and security of Europe.