Is Europe Facing a New Cold War?

The recent events involving Russia and its European neighbors have raised the question of whether we are witnessing a new cold war in Europe. In this blog post, I will summarize the main arguments of a video by Olivier Mas, a former French spy who runs a YouTube channel called Talks with a Spy, where he discusses the world of espionage and international relations. The video, titled “Le retour de la guerre froide en Europe” (The return of the cold war in Europe), was published on March 22, 2023, and it analyzes the series of incidents that have occurred in Europe in the past few years, involving the Russian intelligence services.

The incidents

According to Olivier Mas, the Russian intelligence services have been behind several incidents that have targeted European countries, such as:

• The poisoning of the Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny in August 2020, attributed to the GRU (the Russian military intelligence service).
• The explosion of a munitions depot in the Czech Republic in October 2014, claimed by the Czech government as an operation of the GRU aimed at destroying weapons destined for Ukraine.
• The assassination of a Georgian national in Germany in August 2019, suspected of being the work of the FSB (the Russian internal security service).
• The attempted assassination of a former Russian double agent, Sergei Skripal, and his daughter Yulia in Britain in March 2018, attributed to the GRU and the use of a nerve agent called Novichok.

These incidents show that the Russian intelligence services have adopted a strategy of increased aggressiveness against the European countries, which they consider as enemies and targets.

The strategy

Olivier Mas explains that the strategy of the Russian intelligence services is based on several elements:

• The will of the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, to restore the power and prestige of Russia on the international scene, by opposing NATO and the European Union.
• The conviction that the European countries are weak, divided and incapable of responding effectively to the Russian actions, due to their internal disagreements, their energy dependence and their lack of political will.
• The use of offensive, violent and clandestine methods, inspired by the cold war, to intimidate, destabilize and weaken the European countries, by exploiting their vulnerabilities and flaws.
• The absence of scruples and respect for the international law, the democratic norms and the human values, which translates into the use of chemical weapons, targeted assassinations and cyberattacks.

Olivier Mas concludes that these incidents mark the return of the cold war in Europe, and that it is necessary that the European countries become aware of the threat that Russia represents, and that they mobilize to counter it, by strengthening their unity, their security and their defense.

My opinion

I find the video by Olivier Mas very informative and insightful, as it provides a clear and comprehensive overview of the situation in Europe and the role of the Russian intelligence services. I agree with his analysis that the Russian actions are motivated by a desire to assert their power and influence, and that they pose a serious challenge to the European security and stability. I also share his view that the European countries need to act together and firmly to defend their interests and values, and to prevent further escalation and violence.

However, I also think that the term “cold war” may be misleading and counterproductive, as it implies a binary and antagonistic logic that may not reflect the complexity and diversity of the current international relations.