Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’: A Challenge for the US and Israel

Iran has long been a major player in the Middle East, with a complex network of allies and proxies that share its opposition to the US and Israel. This network, known as the ‘Axis of Resistance’, consists of various militant groups that operate in different countries and contexts, but have a common goal of challenging the status quo and resisting foreign intervention. In this blog post, we will explore the origins, goals, and capabilities of the main groups in the axis, such as Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. We will also examine the challenges and risks that the axis poses for regional stability and security, as well as the potential responses from the US and its allies.

The Origins of the Axis

The ‘Axis of Resistance’ emerged after the 1979 Iranian Revolution, when Iran sought to export its Islamic ideology and challenge the US and Israel’s influence in the region. Iran supported various Shia and Sunni groups that were fighting against the regimes of Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan, and Palestine, and provided them with financial, military, and ideological assistance. Iran also cultivated ties with Syria, which became its main regional ally and a conduit for its support to other groups. Iran’s involvement in the region increased after the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, which created a power vacuum and an opportunity for Iran to expand its influence and presence. Iran also intervened in the Syrian civil war, which started in 2011, to prop up the Assad regime and counter the rise of Sunni extremist groups. Iran’s role in the region has been further complicated by the 2015 nuclear deal, which lifted some of the sanctions on Iran and gave it more resources and legitimacy, but also provoked more hostility and suspicion from its rivals, such as Saudi Arabia and Israel.

The Main Groups in the Axis

The ‘Axis of Resistance’ consists of various Shia and Sunni groups that share a common hostility towards Israel and the US, but have different agendas and levels of dependence on Iran. Some of the main groups in the axis are:

• Hezbollah: a powerful Shia militia and political party in Lebanon, founded in the early 1980s with Iranian support. It has fought several wars with Israel and has a large arsenal of rockets and missiles. It also has a significant role in Syria’s civil war, backing the Assad regime and fighting against the rebels and the Islamic State. Hezbollah is considered by many as the most loyal and effective ally of Iran, and has a strong ideological and religious affinity with the Iranian regime. Hezbollah also has a popular base and a social welfare network in Lebanon, where it participates in the political system and provides services to its supporters.
• Hamas: a Sunni Islamist movement that controls the Gaza Strip, founded in 1987 as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. It has waged several armed conflicts with Israel and has fired rockets and drones at Israeli targets. It has received financial and military aid from Iran, but has also maintained ties with other regional actors, such as Turkey and Qatar. Hamas is less dependent and aligned with Iran than Hezbollah, and has a more pragmatic and nationalist approach. Hamas also faces internal challenges and divisions, as well as a humanitarian crisis and an Israeli blockade in Gaza.
• The Houthis: a Zaidi Shia rebel group that controls large parts of Yemen, founded in the 1990s as a religious and political movement. It has been fighting a Saudi-led coalition since 2015, and has launched missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia and Israel. It has received weapons and training from Iran, but has also asserted its autonomy and local grievances. The Houthis are not a direct proxy of Iran, and have a different sect and doctrine than the Iranian Shia. The Houthis also have a complex relationship with the Yemeni government and other factions, and are involved in a humanitarian catastrophe and a political stalemate in Yemen.
• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq: an umbrella group of hardline Shia militias in Iraq, formed in 2020 as a response to the US killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani. It has claimed responsibility for more than 150 attacks on US forces and bases in Iraq and Syria, using rockets, drones, and ballistic missiles. It is closely linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, but also operates under the Iraqi state-sponsored Popular Mobilisation Forces. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq is a relatively new and heterogeneous group, and has a contentious and violent relationship with the Iraqi government and other militias, as well as with the US and its allies.

The Challenges and Risks of the Axis

The ‘Axis of Resistance’ poses a serious threat to the US and Israel’s interests and security in the region, as it can launch asymmetric attacks, disrupt shipping and energy supplies, and influence the political and social dynamics of the countries where it operates. The axis can also exploit the instability and chaos caused by the conflicts and crises in the region, and expand its reach and capabilities. The axis can also act as a deterrent and a bargaining chip for Iran, which can use its allies and proxies to pressure or negotiate with its adversaries.

However, the axis also faces many challenges and risks, such as internal divisions, regional rivalries, popular discontent, and international pressure. It is unclear how cohesive and coordinated the axis is, and how far Iran can control or restrain its allies. It also has to deal with the backlash and resentment from the local populations and governments, who may see the axis as a source of violence and interference. It also has to cope with the economic and diplomatic sanctions and isolation imposed by the US and its allies, which limit its resources and options. The axis also runs the risk of provoking a wider war or a military confrontation with the US and Israel, which could have devastating consequences for the region and the world.

The Responses from the US and its Allies

The US and its allies have responded to the axis with various measures, such as sanctions, diplomacy, military strikes, and support for local partners. However, these responses have not been able to deter or contain the axis, and have sometimes escalated the tensions and violence. The US and its allies face a dilemma of how to deal with the axis without triggering a wider war or undermining their own interests. Some of the possible options are:

• Containment: This option involves maintaining a strong military presence and posture in the region, and imposing more sanctions and pressure on Iran and its allies. This option aims to limit the axis’s expansion and aggression, and to protect the US and its allies’ interests and allies. However, this option also carries the risk of increasing the hostility and resentment of the axis, and of sparking a miscalculation or a clash that could spiral out of control.
• Engagement: This option involves engaging in dialogue and negotiation with Iran and its allies, and offering incentives and concessions in exchange for moderation and cooperation. This option aims to reduce the animosity and mistrust of the axis, and to address the root causes and grievances of the conflict. However, this option also faces the challenge of finding a common ground and a mutual trust with the axis, and of overcoming the opposition and skepticism of the US and its allies’ domestic and regional partners.
• Regime Change: This option involves supporting the opposition and the dissidents in Iran and its allies, and encouraging or facilitating a political and social change that would weaken or replace the axis. This option hopes to create a more democratic and friendly regime in the region, and to eliminate the threat of the axis. However, this option also entails the danger of destabilizing the region and creating more violence and chaos, and of backfiring and strengthening the axis’s resolve and legitimacy.

Conclusion

Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ is a formidable and complex phenomenon that challenges the US and Israel’s role and security in the Middle East. The axis consists of various militant groups that have different agendas and capabilities, but share a common opposition to the US and Israel. The axis poses a serious threat to the regional stability and security, but also faces many challenges and risks. The US and its allies have tried to counter the axis with various measures, but have not been able to achieve a satisfactory outcome. The US and its allies need to rethink their strategy and approach towards the axis, and to find a way to balance their interests and values with the realities and complexities of the region.