Iran-Pakistan conflict: a dangerous escalation
The recent exchange of fire between Iran and Pakistan is a worrying sign of the instability and volatility of the Middle East. The two countries, which share a 959-kilometer border, have long had tense relations, but this is the first time that they have directly attacked each other’s territory. The incident exposes the fragility of the regional security architecture and the potential for further escalation.
The root cause of the conflict is the presence of militant groups that operate across the border, such as the Islamic State, the Baloch Liberation Army, and the Jaish al-Adl. These groups have carried out attacks against both Iran and Pakistan, exploiting the porous and rugged terrain and the weak governance of the border areas. Iran accuses Pakistan of turning a blind eye to the activities of these groups, while Pakistan denies any involvement and blames Iran for supporting the separatists in Balochistan.
The situation is complicated by the involvement of external actors, such as China, the US, and Israel. China has a strategic interest in Pakistan, as it is investing billions of dollars in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which passes through Balochistan and connects China’s Xinjiang region with the port of Gwadar. China also has a stake in Iran, as it recently signed a 25-year cooperation agreement that includes oil and gas projects, trade, and infrastructure. China has tried to play the role of a mediator, but its influence is limited by the mistrust and animosity between Iran and Pakistan.
The US and Israel, on the other hand, have a hostile relationship with Iran, and have been accused of carrying out covert operations and assassinations against Iranian officials and scientists. Iran has also been under severe economic sanctions imposed by the US, which have crippled its economy and hampered its ability to modernize its military. Iran has responded by developing its ballistic missile and nuclear programs, as well as supporting proxy forces in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. This has increased the tensions and the risk of confrontation with Israel and the US, as well as with their allies in the region, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
The Iran-Pakistan conflict is therefore a symptom of a deeper and broader crisis that affects the whole Middle East. It is a crisis that has multiple dimensions: political, economic, religious, ethnic, and ideological. It is a crisis that has no easy solution, and that requires a comprehensive and inclusive approach that addresses the root causes and the grievances of all the parties involved. It is a crisis that, if left unresolved, could lead to a major war that would have devastating consequences for the region and the world.
