How Ukraine’s Missile Strike on Sevastopol Could Change the Course of the War

On Wednesday, September 13, 2023, Ukraine launched a surprise missile strike on the Sergo Ordzhonikidze shipyard in Sevastopol, a strategic port city in Crimea that Russia invaded and annexed in 2014. The attack was the most ambitious and daring strike by Ukraine on the port since the annexation, and it could have significant implications for the ongoing war between the two countries.

What happened and why it matters

According to Ukrainian sources, the strike involved 10 cruise missiles and three unmanned boats, which targeted two Russian warships: a diesel-electric submarine “Rostov-on-Don” and a large landing ship “Minsk”, both of which were undergoing repairs in dry dock. The missiles used were British-made Storm Shadow, which have a range of about 500 kilometers and can evade radar detection.

The attack caused a large fire at the shipyard, injuring 24 people and damaging nearby buildings. Smoke could be seen rising from the port area for hours after the strike. The fire was eventually extinguished by emergency services.

Russia claimed that its air defense forces shot down seven of the missiles and that a patrol ship destroyed all of the boats. However, Ukraine said that it successfully hit its targets and inflicted heavy damage on the Russian fleet.

The attack was seen as a retaliation for Russia’s repeated drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian territory, especially in the Donbass region, where pro-Russian separatists have been fighting against the Ukrainian government since 2014. The attack also showed Ukraine’s determination to challenge Russia’s military presence and influence in Crimea, which is considered by most of the international community as part of Ukraine’s sovereign territory. Ukraine has not given up its claim to Crimea and has vowed to restore its control over the peninsula.

The attack increased the tensions and risks of further escalation between the two countries, which have been locked in a state of war for almost a decade. The international community has called for dialogue and diplomacy to resolve the conflict peacefully, but so far there has been little progress or hope for a lasting solution.

How it affects Russia’s logistics

The attack on Sevastopol was not only a symbolic blow to Russia’s pride and prestige, but also a practical one to its logistics and resupply efforts. Sevastopol is home to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, which is one of its main naval forces in the region. The fleet plays an important role in supporting Russia’s military operations on the Ukrainian mainland, as well as projecting power and influence in the Mediterranean Sea and beyond.

By hitting two warships in dry dock, Ukraine aimed to reduce Russia’s naval capabilities and readiness in the Black Sea. The submarine “Rostov-on-Don” is one of Russia’s most advanced submarines, capable of launching cruise missiles at land targets from underwater. The landing ship “Minsk” is one of Russia’s largest amphibious vessels, capable of transporting troops and equipment to shore. Both ships are valuable assets for Russia’s offensive and defensive strategies in the region.

Moreover, by attacking the shipyard itself, Ukraine aimed to disrupt Russia’s repair and maintenance facilities in Crimea. The shipyard is one of the few places where Russia can service its warships in the peninsula, as most of its other ports are too shallow or too exposed to enemy fire. Without a functioning shipyard, Russia would have to rely on other bases outside of Crimea, such as Novorossiysk or Tartus, which are farther away and more vulnerable to attacks.

By attacking Crimea’s logistics and infrastructure, Ukraine is trying to make Crimea untenable for Russia by isolating it from the mainland and making it more difficult for Russia to sustain its military operations on the Ukrainian mainland. This is part of Ukraine’s counteroffensive strategy, which aims to turn the tide of the conflict and push back Russia’s invasion.

What could happen next

The attack on Sevastopol could have several consequences for both sides of the conflict. For Ukraine, it could boost its morale and confidence, as well as demonstrate its resolve and capabilities to its allies and partners. It could also provoke a stronger response from Russia, which could escalate the violence and lead to more casualties and destruction. For Russia, it could damage its reputation and credibility, as well as expose its vulnerabilities and weaknesses in Crimea. It could also prompt it to intensify its attacks on Ukraine, or seek a diplomatic solution to end the war.

The future of Crimea and the war between Ukraine and Russia remains uncertain and unpredictable. The attack on Sevastopol was a bold move by Ukraine, but it was not a decisive one. The conflict is still far from over, and both sides have shown no signs of backing down or compromising.