How Ukraine and Russia Are Both Adapting To Ukraine’s Offensive
Ukraine’s offensive against Russian invaders in 2022 was a remarkable success, liberating key regions such as Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Mariupol. However, the 2023 campaign faces new challenges, as both sides have adapted to the changing dynamics of the conflict. In this blog post, we will examine how Ukraine and Russia are both adjusting their strategies, tactics, and capabilities in the ongoing war.
Ukraine’s Adaptation Ukraine has been relying on external support from NATO allies and partners, especially the United States, to bolster its military capabilities. Ukraine has received advanced weapons systems such as HIMARS, Abrams, Leopard, and Javelin, as well as training and intelligence assistance. These have enabled Ukraine to conduct effective fire support, armor operations, and anti-tank defense. Ukraine has also improved its command and control, logistics, and cyber defense, thanks to Western advice and technology.
Ukraine has also been pursuing a flexible and agile operational approach, exploiting Russian vulnerabilities and avoiding direct confrontation with superior forces. Ukraine has used deception, mobility, and surprise to achieve local superiority and seize key terrain and infrastructure. Ukraine has also employed hybrid warfare methods, such as information operations, sabotage, and special forces, to undermine Russian morale and cohesion. Ukraine has also leveraged its domestic support and legitimacy, as well as its international recognition and diplomacy, to sustain its war effort and pressure Russia.
Russia’s Adaptation Russia has been facing increasing difficulties in its invasion of Ukraine, due to the Ukrainian resistance, the Western sanctions, and the domestic discontent. Russia has been trying to adapt to the changing situation, by reinforcing its military presence, diversifying its sources of supply, and escalating its aggression. Russia has mobilized more troops, including conscripts and mercenaries, and deployed more equipment, such as tanks, artillery, and air defense systems, to the front lines. Russia has also sought to secure alternative routes and modes of transportation, such as rail, sea, and air, to bypass the Ukrainian blockade and disruption of its road network.
Russia has also been escalating its aggression, both on the ground and in the air, to intimidate and deter Ukraine and its allies. Russia has launched more frequent and intense attacks, using rockets, missiles, drones, and electronic warfare, to inflict casualties and damage on the Ukrainian forces and civilian infrastructure. Russia has also violated the Ukrainian airspace, conducting provocative flights and mock attacks, to test the Ukrainian and NATO air defenses and readiness. Russia has also increased its propaganda, disinformation, and cyber attacks, to sow confusion and division among the Ukrainian and Western public and policymakers.
