How to Understand Putin’s Plan B and Its Implications for US-Russia Relations
The US-Russia relationship is one of the most important and complex issues in global affairs today. The recent invasion of Ukraine by Russia has escalated the tensions and risks of a wider conflict between the two nuclear powers. How can we make sense of Putin’s motives and strategies, and what can the US and its allies do to counter them?
In a recent interview with Times Radio, Kurt Volker, a former US ambassador to NATO and a senior international adviser at BGR Group, shared his insights on Putin’s plan B if Trump loses the US presidential election in 2024. Volker argued that Putin does not have a preference for either Trump or Biden, but rather he sees them as opportunities to advance his own interests and agenda. Putin’s plan B is to exploit the divisions and weaknesses in the US and its allies, and to assert his influence in the regions that he cares about, such as Ukraine, Syria, Belarus, and the Arctic.
Volker explained that Putin’s strategy is to create a narrative that the US is declining, unreliable, and untrustworthy, and that Russia is a strong, stable, and respected power that can protect its allies and partners. Volker also said that Putin’s tactics include cyberattacks, disinformation, interference in elections, support for authoritarian regimes, and military intervention or threats in conflict zones.
Volker suggested that the US and its allies need to counter Putin’s plan B by reaffirming their commitment to democracy, human rights, and international law, and by strengthening their cooperation and coordination on security, sanctions, and diplomacy. Volker also said that the US and its allies need to engage with Russia on areas of common interest, such as arms control, non-proliferation, counter-terrorism, and climate change, and to encourage Russia to respect the sovereignty and choice of its neighbors.
Volker’s analysis is consistent with some of the views expressed by other experts and commentators on the US-Russia relationship. For example, a blog post by Russia Matters, a project of Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, highlighted five lessons on US-Russian relations thirty years after the Reagan-Gorbachev summit in 1988. One of the lessons was that people-to-people contacts and grassroots initiatives are good tools for fostering empathy and the ability to put oneself on someone’s shoes.
Another blog post by the American Security Project, a nonpartisan public policy and research organization, emphasized the importance and future of US-Russia cooperation, despite the geopolitical rivalry and hostility. The post argued that the challenges of the modern world require some cooperation, and that America needs a new plan to steer relations with Russia towards the right course.
A report by the Council on Foreign Relations, a nonpartisan think tank and publisher, offered a practitioner’s account of why the great post-Cold War hopes for an enduring US-Russian strategic partnership grounded in free markets and democratic values gave way to a bitter adversarial relationship that puts the US and Russia on opposing sides of the critical issues in global affairs today. The report also proposed a realistic and pragmatic approach to managing the US-Russia relationship in the 21st century.
These sources provide some useful perspectives and recommendations on how to understand and deal with Putin’s plan B and its implications for US-Russia relations. However, they also acknowledge the difficulties and uncertainties involved in this complex and dynamic issue. The US and its allies will need to be vigilant, flexible, and creative in responding to the challenges and opportunities posed by Russia in the coming years.
