How to Lose Friends and Influence Nobody: Russia’s Double Game in Sudan

10 min readJun 12, 2025

Let’s talk about Sudan. You know, that place where the sand is hot, the politics are hotter, and the gold is — well, it’s golden, especially if you’ve got the right friends and enough firepower. And who’s got both? Russia, naturally. Because why solve a problem when you can profit from it, arm both sides, and call it “diplomacy”? That’s not diplomacy — that’s a three-card monte game with tanks.

Why Sudan? Because, Honestly, Who Gives a Damn?

Sudan’s got a Red Sea coastline — prime real estate for warships and spies. It’s got gold, uranium, and just enough instability to make any foreign power’s mouth water. Russia rolls in, all smiles, and says, “Hey, we’ll help you out.” By “help,” they mean “sell you weapons, prop up your dictator, and maybe, just maybe, set up a little naval base for ourselves.” It’s like offering to fix your leaky faucet and then moving into your basement — with a crew of mercenaries.

After Russia invaded Ukraine, the West turned off the money tap. But gold? Gold is the universal “up yours” to sanctions. Enter Wagner Group, Russia’s not-so-secret mercenary army. They don’t just bring guns — they bring mining contracts, smuggling routes, and a willingness to do the dirty work for a cut of the loot. Wagner’s been in Sudan since at least 2017, propping up the old dictator in exchange for exclusive gold mining rights. Since then, they’ve burrowed into the country’s gold, diamonds, and uranium, funding their own operations and the Kremlin’s war chest. Because nothing says “friendship” like a mercenary group with a mining license and a body count.

The Double Game: How to Lose Friends and Alienate Both Sides

For years, Russia played both sides of Sudan’s civil war. On one hand, they buddy up to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), the guys who run the government — or what’s left of it. On the other, they whisper sweet nothings to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the paramilitary group that keeps things interesting with a little extra violence. Wagner supplies the RSF with weapons, ammo, and fuel, while the Kremlin promises the SAF diplomatic cover and military aid.

This balancing act is all about hedging bets: whoever wins, Russia wins. The RSF, flush with Wagner’s support, controls the gold mines and smuggling routes. The SAF holds the keys to Port Sudan — the gateway to the Red Sea and Russia’s long-coveted naval base.

But in 2023, the whole house of cards starts to wobble. Open warfare erupts between the SAF and RSF, and suddenly, Russia has to pick a side. Whoops. They pick the SAF, because they control the port. Now the RSF is mad, the gold shipments slow down, and Russia’s wallet starts to feel a little light. The Kremlin’s pivot isn’t about picking a winner — it’s about locking in access to the Red Sea and securing their economic interests as the conflict drags on. Because when the chips are down, it’s always about the money.

The Consequences: Or, How to Make a Bad Situation Worse

The fallout from Russia’s double game is catastrophic for Sudan’s people. The civil war has killed over 150,000, displaced 11 million, and left 26 million facing acute food shortages. Famine takes hold in places like El Fasher, the health system collapses, and malnutrition is rampant. Indiscriminate bombings, extrajudicial executions, and starvation as a weapon of war are now grimly routine.

Meanwhile, the country is awash in foreign arms and mercenaries. The UAE supplies the RSF with weapons and cash, Egypt backs the SAF, and Russia plays both sides while quietly moving toward its ultimate prize: a naval base at Port Sudan. Wagner’s involvement only deepens the chaos, with mercenaries fighting in Darfur and gold smuggling networks funneling wealth out of the country.

The broader region isn’t immune. Over a million refugees flee to South Sudan, and the conflict threatens to destabilize neighbors like Chad, Ethiopia, and the Central African Republic. Illicit trafficking — of gold, weapons, and people — explodes, further fueling the violence. Because when you’re already in hell, why not throw in some more fire?

The Naval Base

So, after years of diplomatic kabuki and the kind of negotiation that only happens when everyone’s holding a gun under the table, Russia finally gets its 25-year lease on a Sudanese naval base. Automatic renewal every decade, because nothing says “commitment” like a military prenup you can’t escape. Four warships, some of them nuclear-powered — because why just park your car in the driveway when you can park a reactor? — and 300 Russian personnel, all ready to bring stability, which in international relations is code for “let’s see how many things we can break before lunch.”

This isn’t just a symbolic win, it’s a full-blown “look at me, Ma, I’m projecting power!” moment. The base gives Russia a front-row seat on the Red Sea, that lovely global shipping lane where everyone pretends to play nice while quietly plotting to sink each other’s boats. It’s like adding a second bathroom to your house, but the bathroom is full of spies, and your neighbors are all armed. Russia gets to move its toys — sorry, “equipment” — through Sudanese ports and airports, and in return, Sudan gets weapons, training, and a few military advisors who probably double as Yelp reviewers for local gold mines.

But let’s not kid ourselves: this is less about “regional stability” and more about “regional Monopoly.” The base is Russia’s answer to Tartus in Syria, only with better weather and fewer journalists. It’s a launchpad for mischief across Africa, the Middle East, and anywhere else Moscow wants to remind the world that the Cold War never really died, it just got a new Instagram filter.

And the risks? Oh, there are risks. The region is so volatile, you need a flak jacket just to read the news. The base’s future depends on Sudan not imploding (again), and on the Kremlin’s ability to juggle alliances like a circus clown with a drinking problem. The U.S. and friends are threatening sanctions and diplomatic time-outs, but let’s be honest: when has a little international outrage ever stopped anyone from building a military base? If anything, it’s a selling point. “Come for the gold, stay for the embargo.”

Gold, Guns, and Geopolitics: The Kremlin’s Get-Rich-Quick Scheme

Gold is the Kremlin’s favorite get-out-of-jail-free card, especially when Uncle Sam is locking all the doors and freezing the bank accounts.

So, in September 2024, Russia sends a trade delegation — because nothing says “friendship” like a handshake and a shovel — and signs up to start sucking gold out of Sudan like a vampire at a blood bank. Companies with names you can’t pronounce (Zarubezhgeologiya, anyone?) and Wagner’s merry band of mercenaries move in, turning Sudan’s mining sector into a geopolitical flea market.

But don’t be fooled — this isn’t just about making a quick buck. It’s about dodging sanctions, laundering money, and keeping the Russian war machine fueled up for its adventures in Ukraine and beyond. They funnel Sudanese gold through networks so shadowy, even the shadows are asking for directions. The West tries to block the cash flow, and Russia just laughs, pockets the gold, and buys more bullets.

And what does Sudan get out of this beautiful partnership? Weapons, training, and just enough cash to keep the regime from collapsing before dinner. It’s not “mutual benefit” — it’s two drowning men clinging to the same anvil, calling it a life raft.

Proxy War, Regional Rivalries, and International Fallout

Sudan’s war? Oh, it’s not a local squabble anymore. Now it’s the international version of a bar fight — everybody’s swinging, nobody knows who threw the first punch, and the guy who actually owns the bar is hiding under a table. You’ve got the UAE, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Libya, and — why not? — even Ukraine tossing in guns, cash, and mercenaries like it’s Black Friday at the Arms Bazaar. Everybody’s got a “favorite” in this mess, and they’re all determined to win, even if it means burning down the whole neighborhood.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is handing out sanctions like parking tickets — one for the SAF, one for the RSF, collect the whole set! But guess what? The guns keep coming, the bodies keep piling up, and peace is just a rumor you hear at international conferences. The United Nations? Overwhelmed, underfunded, and basically running on fumes. They scale back their mission, pack up the blue helmets, and leave the door wide open for every foreign power with a spare drone and a grudge to move in.

This isn’t just a war — it’s a global audition for “Who Wants To Be A Superpower?” Russia’s naval base and gold grab are just the latest stunts in the great-power circus, where the only rule is there are no rules. Africa’s “gray zones” are open for business, and business is booming — if your business is chaos.

The Big Picture: How to Ruin a Country Without Really Trying

Russia’s double game in Sudan is a masterclass in short-term gain, long-term disaster. The Kremlin wanted to challenge the West, get rich off Sudanese gold, and project power into Africa and the Indian Ocean. Instead, it’s helped turn Sudan into a playground for warlords, mercenaries, and foreign powers — while ordinary Sudanese pay the price in blood and hunger.

Even if Russia’s base is built and the gold keeps flowing, the damage is done. Sudan is more fractured and unstable than ever, and the region faces the risk of wider war, mass migration, and chronic insecurity. The only real winners are the arms dealers and smugglers who thrive in the chaos. Because when the world burns, someone’s always selling matches.

The Takeaway

What have we learned? Playing both sides in a civil war is a recipe for disaster. Trying to profit from someone else’s misery is worse. And thinking you can outsmart everyone in a country on the brink is, frankly, delusional. Russia’s double game may have bought it a naval base and a few bars of gold, but it’s left Sudan in ruins and the world a more dangerous place.

This isn’t just a story about Sudan — it’s a warning about what happens when great powers treat fragile states as chessboards. The losers are always the people caught in the middle, struggling to survive the fallout of someone else’s game. And in Sudan, that game is far from over.

If you’re enjoying the content on my blog and would like to dive deeper into exclusive insights, I invite you to check out my Patreon page. It’s a space where you can support my work and get access to behind-the-scenes articles, in-depth analyses, and more. Your support helps me keep creating high-quality content and allows me to explore even more exciting topics. Visit [patreon.com/ChristianBaghai](https://www.patreon.com/ChristianBaghai) and join the community today! Thank you for being a part of this journey!

Christian Baghai | Patreon

The Detention Gold Rush: How Tom Homan, GEO Group, and ICE Turn Misery into Money | Patreon

The Resistance: Where Lawsuits, Park Rangers, and Social Media Are the New Weapons of Mass Disruption | Patreon

Little Green Men, Big Red Flags: Russia’s Hybrid Circus Tests NATO’s Nerves | Patreon

Why the Russian Army Still Sucks in Ukraine | Patreon

The Resistance: Where Lawsuits, Park Rangers, and Social Media Are the New Weapons of Mass Disruption | Patreon

“Weak with the Strong, Harsh with the Weak”: The Far Right’s Greatest Magic Trick | Patreon

Port of Shadows (Now with Extra Bullsh*t): The Lady R Affair and the Age of Non-Exploding Warfare | Patreon

Beneath the Badge: How ICE’s Human Resources Department Became a Weapon of Mass Employment | Patreon

The Dragon’s Discount: A Stealth Jet, a Strategic Scam, and the Theater of South Asian Power Games | Patreon

This Isn’t a Trade War — It’s America Screaming at Its Own Reflection in a Broken Mirror | Patreon

Bigger Models, Smaller Brains: How Deregulation Turned AI Into a Glorified Lottery Ticket | Patreon