How to Deal with the Gray Zone: A Challenge for U.S. National Security

The gray zone is a term that describes the space between peace and war, where actors use non-military means to achieve their objectives without triggering a conventional response. These means can include subversion, espionage, disinformation, cyberattacks, economic coercion, and proxy warfare. The gray zone is not a new phenomenon, but it has become more prevalent and complex in the 21st century, as technology, globalization, and geopolitics have created new opportunities and challenges for state and non-state actors. Some examples of gray zone activities are Russia’s annexation of Crimea, China’s maritime coercion in the South China Sea, Iran’s nuclear deal violations, and North Korea’s missile tests. These activities pose significant threats to the international order and the interests of the United States and its allies, who need to develop effective strategies to counter them.

The main users of the gray zone are China and Russia, who seek to challenge the U.S.-led international order and expand their influence and interests in their regions and beyond. They employ a range of tactics, such as electoral interference, economic coercion, information manipulation, support to local actors, and ambiguous use of conventional or unconventional force. These tactics are designed to exploit the vulnerabilities of their adversaries, avoid clear attribution and detection, and stay below the threshold of armed conflict. Some examples of their gray zone activities are China’s island-building in the South China Sea, Russia’s campaigns to influence elections.

Other countries, such as Iran, North Korea, and non-state actors, also resort to the gray zone to pursue their goals and resist U.S. pressure. They may use proxies, cyberattacks, terrorism, or weapons of mass destruction to create instability, deterrence, or leverage. They may also cooperate or compete with China and Russia in the gray zone, depending on their interests and alignments. For example, Iran has used its proxies to attack U.S. troops and allies in Iraq and Syria, and to support the Palestinian cause. North Korea has conducted missile and nuclear tests to defy U.N. sanctions and pressure the U.S. to negotiate. Non-state actors, such as terrorist groups and criminal networks, have exploited the gray zone to challenge state authority and advance their agendas. These actors often pose significant threats to the international order and the interests of the United States and its allies, who have responded with various sanctions, cyber operations, and diplomatic initiatives.

The gray zone poses a significant challenge for the United States, which needs to adapt its strategy, organization, and response to these threats that undermine its influence and interests. The U.S. faces a dilemma: how to counter the gray zone without escalating to war or conceding to coercion. The U.S. also needs to balance its global commitments and priorities, as the gray zone may occur in multiple regions and domains simultaneously. To do so, the U.S. has proposed a concept of integrated deterrence, which aims to leverage all instruments of national power and work with allies and partners to deter and respond to gray zone activities. The U.S. has also sought to improve its intelligence capabilities and interagency coordination to better detect, understand, and attribute gray zone activities. Moreover, the U.S. has tried to innovate its military and non-military tools and integrate them into a coherent campaign plan to operate effectively in the gray zone. These efforts are intended to enhance the U.S. competitive advantage and resilience in the face of gray zone challenges.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) offers some insights and recommendations to better understand and counter the gray zone, especially in the areas of information warfare, economic coercion, and ambiguous use of force. Some of these include:

• Developing a comprehensive and integrated gray zone strategy that defines the U.S. objectives, interests, and red lines, and that aligns the ends, ways, and means of the U.S. government and its allies and partners.
• Enhancing the U.S. capabilities and capacities to deter, detect, attribute, and respond to gray zone activities, by investing in new technologies, intelligence, cyber, and special operations, and by strengthening the interagency and international coordination and cooperation.
• Building resilience and resistance among the U.S. society and institutions, and among its allies and partners, to the gray zone threats, by raising awareness, improving education, promoting media literacy, and reinforcing democratic values and norms.
• Engaging in dialogue and diplomacy with the gray zone actors, to communicate the U.S. position and expectations, to seek areas of common interest and cooperation, and to manage crises and de-escalate tensions.

The gray zone is a complex and dynamic phenomenon that requires a nuanced and adaptive approach from the United States and its allies and partners. The U.S. cannot afford to ignore or underestimate the gray zone, nor to overreact or escalate to it. The U.S. must find the right balance and the right tools to compete and prevail in the gray zone, while preserving its principles and interests.