How Taiwan Plans to Defend Itself Against China’s Growing Military Threat

Taiwan, a self-governing island of 23 million people, faces an existential challenge from its giant neighbor, China, which claims it as part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve reunification. China’s military capabilities have grown rapidly in recent years, posing a serious threat to Taiwan’s security and sovereignty. In this blog post, I will summarize the main points of a video report by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ).that explains Taiwan’s current defense strategy, the challenges it faces, and the role of the United States and other allies in deterring a Chinese invasion.

Taiwan’s Current Defense Strategy

Taiwan’s defense strategy is based on the assumption that it can hold off a Chinese attack for a few days or weeks until the United States and other allies can intervene to help. Taiwan’s military relies on a mix of conventional and asymmetric weapons, such as fighter jets, missiles, submarines, and mines, to deter and delay a Chinese invasion. Taiwan also has a large reserve force of about 2.5 million people who can be mobilized in case of war.

One of the key elements of Taiwan’s defense strategy is to use its east coast as a safe haven and a staging area for counterattacks. Taiwan’s east coast is less vulnerable to Chinese missiles and air strikes than its west coast, which faces the mainland. Taiwan’s east coast also has a rugged mountain terrain that creates a natural barrier against a Chinese landing. Taiwan’s military has built tunnels, bunkers, and hidden bases along the east coast to store weapons and supplies. Taiwan’s air force also has several airstrips on the east coast that can be used to launch and recover fighter jets.

The Problem

However, Taiwan’s defense strategy faces several problems as China’s military capabilities and activities have increased. China has developed more advanced and diverse weapons, such as hypersonic missiles, stealth fighters, aircraft carriers, and amphibious assault ships, that can threaten Taiwan from multiple directions and domains. China has also stepped up its military exercises and operations near Taiwan, including frequent incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) and occasional naval drills around the island. These actions are seen as a way to intimidate Taiwan, test its defenses, and gather intelligence.

Taiwan’s military is also facing challenges in maintaining its readiness and modernizing its equipment. Taiwan’s defense budget is only about $11 billion, compared to China’s estimated $250 billion. The Taiwanese armed forces also suffers from a shortage of personnel, especially pilots and submariners, due to low recruitment and retention rates. The Taiwanese military also relies on aging and outdated platforms, such as F-16 fighters, that are increasingly outmatched by China’s newer and more advanced systems. Taiwan has been trying to acquire more advanced and asymmetric weapons from the United States and other countries, such as F-35 stealth fighters, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, and SeaGuardian drones, but these deals face political and technical hurdles.

Taiwan’s Reliance on Allies

Taiwan’s defense strategy also depends on the support and assistance of the United States and other allies, such as Japan and Australia, in the event of a Chinese attack. The United States is Taiwan’s main security partner and arms supplier, and has a legal and moral obligation to help Taiwan defend itself under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 and the Six Assurances of 1982. The United States also has a strategic interest in preventing China from dominating the Indo-Pacific region and undermining the rules-based international order. The United States has maintained a policy of strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan, which means that it does not explicitly state whether it would intervene militarily to defend Taiwan, but also does not rule out the possibility. This policy is intended to deter both China from using force and Taiwan from declaring independence.

However, Taiwan’s reliance on the United States and other allies also entails risks and uncertainties. China’s military capabilities and activities have raised doubts about whether the United States and other allies can effectively deter, respond, and prevail in a conflict over Taiwan. China’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities, such as missiles and submarines, can pose a significant threat to U.S. and allied forces operating in the region. China’s nuclear weapons and cyber capabilities can also escalate the conflict and complicate the decision-making process. Moreover, the United States and other allies may face political and diplomatic pressures and constraints in intervening in a conflict over Taiwan, especially if the conflict is triggered by Taiwan’s actions or perceived provocations. The Allied forces may also have different views and interests on how to manage the cross-strait relations and balance the risks and benefits of supporting Taiwan.

Conclusion

Taiwan faces a growing and complex military threat from China, which challenges its current defense strategy and its reliance on the United States and other allies. Taiwan needs to adapt and adjust its defense strategy to cope with the changing security environment and to enhance its self-defense capabilities. Taiwan also needs to maintain and strengthen its unofficial and informal relations with the United States and other allies, and to seek more international support and recognition for its sovereignty and democracy. Taiwan’s security and survival depend not only on its military capabilities, but also on its political will, economic resilience, and social cohesion.