How Russia’s War in Ukraine Exposed Its Weakness and Desperation
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was supposed to be a swift and decisive victory for President Vladimir Putin, who wanted to assert his dominance over the former Soviet republic and deter the West from supporting its sovereignty and democracy. Instead, the war has turned into a quagmire for Russia, which has faced fierce resistance from the Ukrainian military and society, as well as diplomatic and economic pressure from the international community. Russia’s military performance has been dismal, its nuclear threats have been hollow, and its strategic objectives have been elusive. The war has revealed Russia’s weakness and desperation, rather than its strength and confidence.
Russia’s Military Failures
Russia’s initial campaign to capture Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, failed miserably, as the Ukrainian army and volunteer battalions managed to repel the Russian invasion and inflict heavy casualties on the invaders. Russia had to retreat to the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, where it faced a protracted and bloody conflict with the Ukrainian forces and local militias. Russia also lost control of the strategic city of Kharkiv, where it faced a popular uprising and a counteroffensive by the Ukrainian army. Russia’s attempt to open a second front in the south, by invading the Crimean peninsula and the Kherson region, also met with stiff resistance and limited success. Russia’s naval and air assets have been largely neutralized by Ukraine’s anti-ship and anti-aircraft capabilities, as well as by NATO’s presence and assistance in the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea. Russia’s flagship, the Moskva cruiser, was sunk by a Ukrainian naval drone in the Black Sea, in a humiliating blow to the Russian navy.
Russia’s military failures have exposed its lack of preparedness, professionalism, and modernization. Russia’s army has suffered from low morale, poor training, inadequate equipment, and high desertion rates. Russia has also faced a shortage of manpower, as it has burned through its professional soldiers and resorted to conscripting students, prisoners, and mercenaries to the front. Russia’s military command has been incompetent and corrupt, failing to coordinate its operations and provide adequate support and supplies to its troops. Russia’s military doctrine has been outdated and ineffective, relying on outdated tactics and weapons that have been outmatched by Ukraine’s more agile and innovative warfare.
Russia’s Nuclear Saber-Rattling
Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling has been a desperate attempt to intimidate and deter the West from supporting Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia. Putin has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine and its allies, and has ordered his nuclear forces to be on a “special regime of combat duty alert”. Russia has also tested its new intercontinental ballistic missile, the Sarmat, nicknamed the “Satan II” in the West, which is capable of delivering multiple nuclear warheads as far as the continental United States. Russia has also deployed nuclear-capable missiles to neighboring Belarus, in a provocative move that has alarmed NATO and the European Union.
However, Russia’s nuclear threats have been largely empty and counterproductive, as they have failed to deter the West and have instead galvanized it into action. The West has responded to Russia’s nuclear brinkmanship with calm and confidence, as it has the ability to defend itself and its allies from any nuclear attack. The Western allies have also increased its diplomatic and economic pressure on Russia, imposing harsh sanctions that have crippled Russia’s economy and isolated it from the international community. Nato and its western allies have increased its military and security assistance to Ukraine, providing it with weapons, training, intelligence, and logistical support. The West has also reinforced its collective defense and deterrence posture, by increasing its military presence and readiness in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states, and by conducting joint exercises and operations with Ukraine and other partners.
Russia’s Strategic Fiasco
Russia’s war in Ukraine has been a strategic fiasco, as it has failed to achieve any of its political and geopolitical objectives, and has instead backfired on Russia’s own interests and security. Russia’s main goal was to prevent Ukraine from becoming a stable, democratic, and prosperous state that could join the Euro-Atlantic community and serve as a model and inspiration for other post-Soviet countries. Putin's Russia wanted to undermine the credibility and cohesion of NATO and the European Union, and to assert its own sphere of influence and domination in the region. Russia also wanted to divert attention and resources from its domestic problems, such as economic stagnation, social unrest, political repression, and public discontent.
However, Russia’s war in Ukraine has achieved the opposite of what it intended, as it has strengthened Ukraine’s resolve and unity, and has accelerated its integration with the West. Ukraine has emerged as a symbol and leader of democracy and resistance in the region, and has received unprecedented support and solidarity from the West and the international community. Ukraine has also embarked on a path of reforms and modernization, aimed at improving its governance, economy, and society. Ukraine has also enhanced its security and defense capabilities, and has become a more capable and reliable partner for the West. Russia’s war in Ukraine has also strengthened the unity and resolve of NATO and the European Union, and has increased their cooperation and coordination on security and defense issues. The West has also reaffirmed its commitment and support to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and other partners in the region, and has rejected Russia’s claims and attempts to create a sphere of influence and domination. Russia’s war in Ukraine has also worsened its own domestic situation, as it has drained its resources, damaged its economy, isolated it from the world, and increased its public dissatisfaction and opposition.
