How Russians really feel about Putin and his invasion of Ukraine | Frontline

The war in Ukraine has been raging for more than a year and a half, since Russia invaded the country in February 2022. The conflict has claimed thousands of lives, displaced millions of people, and sparked a global crisis that threatens the security and stability of Europe and beyond. But what do ordinary Russians think about the war and their leader, Vladimir Putin, who ordered it?

To answer this question, we need to look beyond the official propaganda and the biased polls that often reflect the fear and pressure that many Russians face under the authoritarian regime. We need to listen to the voices of the people themselves, who have different and complex opinions about the war and its consequences.

One way to do that is to examine the research conducted by the Public Sociology Laboratory, an independent initiative that has interviewed more than 200 Russians since the start of the war. Their findings reveal that Russian society is divided into three broad groups: supporters, opponents, and doubters of the war.

Supporters are those who believe that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is justified and necessary, even if they feel anxious and unhappy about it. They tend to deny Russia’s responsibility for the war, the scale of destruction and suffering it has caused, and the seriousness of the sanctions and isolation it has faced. They often repeat the official narrative that portrays Ukraine as a fascist and genocidal state that threatens the Russian-speaking population and Russia’s interests. They also see the war as a way to prevent NATO from expanding to Russia’s borders and to ensure Ukraine’s neutral status. Some supporters are more aggressive and want an all-out offensive, while others are more cautious and hope for a peaceful resolution.

Opponents are those who reject the war and criticize Putin for launching it. They tend to express their views openly, through protests, petitions, or social media, or more subtly, by withdrawing from public life and avoiding political discussions. They often face harassment, intimidation, or persecution from the authorities or pro-war groups. They acknowledge the reality and the horror of the war, the damage it has done to Ukraine and Russia, and the need for dialogue and cooperation. They also challenge the official narrative and expose the lies and manipulations of the state media. They see the war as a result of Putin’s ambition and aggression, and a threat to democracy and human rights.

Doubters are those who claim they do not have an opinion on the war or who are unsure about it. They tend to avoid the topic and focus on their personal problems and interests. They often feel confused, conflicted, or indifferent about the war and its motives. They may have some sympathy for the people of Ukraine or some distrust of the government, but they also fear the consequences of opposing the war or expressing their doubts. They may also be influenced by the propaganda or the social pressure that surrounds them. They see the war as a complex and distant issue that does not affect them directly or that they cannot change.

These three groups are not fixed or homogeneous, and they may change over time depending on the developments of the war and the social and economic situation in Russia. The supporters may lose their enthusiasm or confidence in the war if it drags on or escalates, or if they face more hardships or challenges at home. The opponents may gain more support or visibility if they manage to organize and mobilize more people, or if they find more allies or platforms abroad. The doubters may shift toward either supporting or rejecting the war if they receive more information or persuasion, or if they experience more personal or collective impact.

The war in Ukraine is not only a military and political conflict, but also a social and psychological one. It reveals the diversity and the dynamics of Russian public opinion, and the challenges and opportunities for dialogue and peace. To understand how Russians really feel about the war and Putin, we need to listen to their stories and perspectives, and to respect their agency and dignity.