How NATO is Pushing Russia Out of the Baltic Sea
The Baltic Sea is a strategic waterway that connects Russia with the rest of Europe. It is also a source of tension and conflict, as NATO and Russia compete for influence and security in the region. In recent years, NATO has expanded its presence and activities in the Baltic Sea, while Russia has responded with aggressive and provocative actions. In this blog post, we will explore how NATO is pushing Russia out of the Baltic Sea, and what are the implications for the future of the region and the world.
NATO’s expansion in the Baltic Sea
NATO’s involvement in the Baltic Sea dates back to the end of the Cold War, when Poland joined the alliance in 1999, followed by the three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in 2004. These countries, which were formerly part of the Soviet Union or its sphere of influence, sought NATO’s protection and integration with the West. Their accession to NATO put most of the southern shore of the Baltic Sea under the alliance’s control, and increased its border with Russia.
However, NATO’s expansion in the Baltic Sea did not stop there. In 2023, two more countries joined the alliance: Finland and Sweden. These countries, which had long maintained a policy of neutrality, decided to abandon it and apply for NATO membership in 2022, in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Finland and Sweden’s membership in NATO closed the vise on the sea from the north, leaving Russia with limited access. It also expanded the alliance’s presence and influence in the Arctic, a region of increasing strategic importance for both Russia and China.
Finland and Sweden’s joining of NATO had significant implications for the region’s security and stability. It made NATO’s deterrence more credible, as it ensured the alliance’s access to ports and airports in the northern part of the Baltic Sea, which were not guaranteed before. It also strengthened the defense of the Baltic states, which had felt isolated and vulnerable to Russian aggression. Moreover, it enhanced NATO’s cohesion and solidarity, as it demonstrated the alliance’s ability to adapt and respond to new challenges and threats.
Russia’s reaction to NATO’s expansion
Russia, which considers the Baltic Sea as its backyard and a vital transit route for its navy, was not happy with NATO’s expansion in the region. Russia viewed NATO’s enlargement as a threat to its security and interests, and as a violation of its sphere of influence. Russia also accused NATO of encircling and provoking it, and of breaking the promises made at the end of the Cold War, when the alliance agreed not to deploy troops or nuclear weapons in the former Soviet bloc countries.
Russia’s reaction to NATO’s expansion in the Baltic Sea was aggressive and confrontational. Russia increased its military presence and activities in the region, especially in the heavily militarized Kaliningrad exclave, which is sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania. Russia deployed advanced anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles, nuclear-capable bombers, and submarines in Kaliningrad, creating a so-called “A2/AD” (anti-access/area denial) bubble that could challenge NATO’s access and freedom of movement in the Baltic Sea. Russia also conducted frequent and large-scale military exercises in the region, often without prior notification or transparency, and in violation of international agreements and norms.
The Russian military engaged in provocative and unsafe behavior in the Baltic Sea, such as intercepting and buzzing NATO aircraft and ships, violating the airspace and territorial waters of NATO members and partners. One of the most serious incidents occurred in November 2022, when two Russian fighter jets overflew two NATO vessels at a low altitude and failed to respond to the alliance’s attempts to communicate. NATO condemned Russia’s actions as unprofessional and dangerous, and warned that they could lead to accidents or escalation.
The future of the Baltic Sea
The Baltic Sea is a region of high tension and competition between NATO and Russia, and a potential flashpoint for a larger conflict. The situation in the region is unlikely to improve in the near future, as both sides are determined to defend their interests and assert their influence. NATO will continue to enhance its presence and activities in the Baltic Sea, as part of its deterrence and defense posture, and to support its members and partners in the region. Russia will continue to challenge and test NATO’s resolve and capabilities, and to demonstrate its own power and capabilities.
However, despite the risks and challenges, there is also room for dialogue and cooperation between NATO and Russia in the Baltic Sea, as both sides have a common interest in maintaining stability and avoiding escalation. NATO and Russia have established mechanisms and channels for communication and consultation, such as the NATO-Russia Council and the Incidents at Sea Agreement, which can be used to address issues of concern and prevent misunderstandings or miscalculations.
The Baltic Sea is a region of strategic importance for both NATO and Russia, and a test case for their relationship. How they manage their competition and cooperation in the region will have implications for the security and stability of Europe and beyond.
