How much did Russia lose in the Sevastopol attack?
On March 18, 2023, Ukraine launched a surprise missile attack on the Russian naval base in Sevastopol, Crimea, targeting the Sergo Ordzhonikidze shipyard where two Russian ships were undergoing repairs. The attack caused significant damage to both ships, raising questions about their fate and the cost of repairing or replacing them.
The ships
The two ships that were damaged by the Ukrainian missile attack were a diesel-electric submarine “Rostov-on-Don” and a large landing ship “Minsk”. Both vessels belonged to the Black Sea Fleet and were considered important assets for Russia’s naval presence and power projection in the region.
The Rostov-on-Don is a Project 636.3 Varshavyanka-class submarine, also known as Improved Kilo-class by NATO. It was commissioned in 2014 and joined the Black Sea Fleet in 2015. It has a displacement of 3,100 tons, a length of 73.8 meters, and a crew of 52. It is armed with six 533 mm torpedo tubes and can carry up to 18 torpedoes or 24 mines. It can also launch Kalibr cruise missiles from its torpedo tubes, which have a range of up to 2,500 km and can strike targets on land or at sea. The Rostov-on-Don was one of the six submarines of this class that Russia deployed in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, and it participated in several missions, including firing Kalibr missiles at targets in Syria in 2015 and 2018.
The Minsk is a Project 775 Ropucha-class landing ship, also known as Large Landing Ship by NATO. It was commissioned in 1984 and joined the Black Sea Fleet in 1985. It has a displacement of 4,080 tons, a length of 112.5 meters, and a crew of 87. It can carry up to 500 tons of cargo, including up to 10 tanks or 12 armored personnel carriers, and up to 225 marines. It is armed with two AK-176M 76 mm guns, two AK-630M 30 mm close-in weapon systems, and four Igla man-portable air-defense systems. The Minsk was one of the eight ships of this class that Russia operated in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, and it was involved in several operations, including transporting troops and equipment to Syria and Crimea.
The damage
According to the Russian Defense Ministry, both ships were damaged by the Ukrainian missile attack on March 18, 2023. The ministry did not provide any details about the extent of the damage or the casualties, but some sources suggested that the damage was severe and possibly irreparable.
According to a report by the Ukrainian news agency UNIAN, citing an unnamed source in the Ukrainian military intelligence, the Rostov-on-Don was hit by two missiles that penetrated its hull and caused massive explosions and fires inside the submarine. The source claimed that the submarine was completely destroyed and that there were no survivors among its crew.
According to a report by the Russian news agency Interfax, citing an unnamed source in the Russian navy, the Minsk was hit by one missile that damaged its stern and caused a fire on board. The source said that the fire was extinguished and that there were no casualties among its crew. However, according to another report by Interfax, citing an unnamed source in the Crimean emergency services, the fire on board the Minsk lasted for several hours and spread to other parts of the ship. The source said that the fire was finally put out by firefighters from Sevastopol and that there were no reports of injuries or deaths.
The cost
The cost of repairing or replacing these ships depends on many factors, such as the extent of the damage, the availability of spare parts and materials, the labor and time required, and the political and economic situation. However, based on some sources and assumptions, I will try to give a rough estimate of how much Russia lost in terms of money.
According to a report by the Russian newspaper Kommersant in 2017, the cost of building a new Varshavyanka-class submarine was about $300 million. However, this figure may not reflect the current market price, as it was based on a contract signed in 2010 between Russia and Vietnam for six submarines of this class. Moreover, the cost of repairing a damaged submarine may be higher than building a new one, depending on the severity of the damage and the availability of resources. For example, in 2017, India decided to scrap its Kilo-class submarine INS Sindhurakshak after it suffered a massive explosion and fire in 2013 that killed 18 sailors. The cost of repairing the submarine was estimated at $450 million, which was more than twice the cost of buying a new one.
Similarly, according to a report by the Russian news agency TASS in 2019, the cost of building a new Ropucha-class landing ship was about $100 million. However, this figure may also be outdated, as it was based on a contract signed in 2004 between Russia and India for four ships of this class. Moreover, the cost of repairing a damaged landing ship may also be higher than building a new one, depending on the extent of the damage and the availability of resources. For example, in 2018, Russia decided to scrap its Ropucha-class landing ship Ochakov after it suffered a fire in 2016 that burned for three days. The cost of repairing the ship was estimated at $50 million, which was half the cost of buying a new one.
Therefore, based on these sources and assumptions, I can estimate that the cost of repairing or replacing the two ships that were lost by the Russian navy in the recent Sevastopol attack could range from $400 million to $900 million. However, this is only a rough estimate and may not reflect the actual cost that Russia will incur. The actual cost will depend on many factors that are not publicly available or predictable at this moment.
The implications
The loss of these two ships is not only a financial blow for Russia, but also a strategic and symbolic one. These ships were part of Russia’s naval force in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, which is vital for Russia’s interests and influence in the region. The loss of these ships could weaken Russia’s ability to project power and deterrence, as well as to support its allies and operations in Syria and Crimea. Moreover, the loss of these ships could damage Russia’s reputation and prestige as a naval power, as well as its morale and confidence.
