How Iran and Russia are intertwined in the Middle East
The recent escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran has raised concerns about the role of Russia in the region. Russia has been a close ally of Iran for decades, and has also been involved in the Syrian civil war, the Yemeni crisis, and the Lebanese politics. What are the motivations and implications of Russia’s involvement in the Middle East? How does it affect the US and its allies?
To answer these questions, I have based myself on the interview of Lieutenant General Ben Hodges for Times Radio, a former commander of the US Army in Europe, who has extensive experience and knowledge of the region. Hodges shared his insights on the complex relationship between Iran and Russia, and how it shapes the dynamics of the Middle East.
Iran and Russia: a mutual dependence
Hodges began by explaining that Iran and Russia are both dependent on each other for economic, military, and political reasons. He said that hindering Iran will hinder Russia, and vice versa, because they have common interests and challenges in the region.
“Iran is Russia’s main partner in the Middle East, providing access to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, as well as a buffer zone against US and NATO influence,” Hodges said. “Iran is also Russia’s main customer for arms sales, nuclear technology, and oil and gas infrastructure, which are vital sources of revenue and influence for Russia.”
Hodges added that Iran is Russia’s main ally in supporting the Assad regime in Syria, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and the Hezbollah in Lebanon, which are all opposed to US and Israeli interests. He said that these conflicts are part of a broader struggle for regional dominance and influence, in which Iran and Russia are aligned against the US and its allies, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt.
“Russia is Iran’s main protector from US and Israeli threats, providing diplomatic cover, military assistance, and nuclear guarantees,” Hodges said. “Russia has vetoed several UN resolutions against Iran, and has helped Iran develop its nuclear program and its ballistic missile capabilities. Russia has also supplied Iran with advanced weapons systems, such as the S-300 air defense system, and has conducted joint military exercises with Iran in the Caspian Sea and the Mediterranean Sea.”
Hodges also pointed out that Russia is Iran’s main partner in developing the North-South Transport Corridor, a network of rail, road, and sea routes that connects Iran with Russia, Central Asia, and Europe. He said that this project is a strategic and economic initiative that aims to enhance trade and cooperation among the countries involved, and to reduce their dependence on the US-dominated global system.
“The North-South Transport Corridor is a way for Iran and Russia to bypass the sanctions imposed by the US and its allies, and to create alternative markets and opportunities for their products and services,” Hodges said. “It is also a way for them to challenge the US-led initiatives, such as the Belt and Road Initiative and the Indo-Pacific Strategy, which seek to expand the US influence and presence in Asia and beyond.”
Iran and Russia: a potential conflict
Hodges concluded by warning that any escalation of conflict with Iran, such as a US or Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities, would harm Russia’s interests and provoke its response, which could lead to a wider and more dangerous confrontation. He said that Russia would not tolerate any threat to its partner and ally, and would use its military and diplomatic power to defend and support Iran.
“Russia has made it clear that it will not allow any attack on Iran, and that it will retaliate against any aggressor,” Hodges said. “Russia has deployed its forces and assets in the region, such as the S-400 air defense system, the Khmeimim air base, and the Tartus naval base, to deter and counter any potential attack. Russia has also established a hotline with Iran, to coordinate their actions and to avoid any accidental clashes.”
Hodges said that a conflict with Iran would also have negative consequences for the stability and security of the region, and for the global order. He said that such a conflict would trigger a humanitarian crisis, a refugee crisis, an oil crisis, and a nuclear crisis, which would affect the lives and interests of millions of people around the world.
“A conflict with Iran would be a disaster for the Middle East and for the world,” Hodges said. “It would create more chaos, violence, and extremism, and it would undermine the efforts to resolve the existing conflicts and to promote peace and cooperation. It would also endanger the non-proliferation regime, and it would increase the risk of a nuclear war.”
Hodges urged the US and its allies to pursue a diplomatic solution with Iran, and to engage with Russia in a constructive dialogue. He said that the US and Russia have common interests and responsibilities in the region, and that they should work together to address the challenges and opportunities that the Middle East presents.
“The US and Russia should not be enemies, but partners, in the Middle East,” Hodges said. “They should cooperate on issues such as counter-terrorism, counter-proliferation, humanitarian assistance, and regional integration. They should also respect each other’s legitimate interests and concerns, and avoid any actions that could escalate the tensions and spark a conflict. The Middle East needs more dialogue, not more war.”
