Hamas is losing influence | Brett Bruen
The recent escalation of violence between Israel and Hamas has once again exposed the fragility of the ceasefire that was brokered in May 2023, after 11 days of intense fighting that killed more than 250 people, mostly Palestinians. On October 7, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, sending hundreds of gunmen through a network of tunnels into Israeli communities near the Gaza border. The militants took more than 200 hostages, including women and children, and killed dozens of Israeli soldiers and civilians. Israel responded with a massive aerial and ground assault on Gaza, targeting Hamas’s military infrastructure and leadership. More than 14,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Israeli strikes, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza .
The attack was widely condemned by the international community, which accused Hamas of violating the ceasefire and endangering the lives of innocent civilians on both sides. The United States, the European Union, the United Nations, and several Arab countries called for an immediate end to the hostilities and the release of the hostages. Hamas claimed that the attack was a response to Israel’s continued blockade of Gaza, its expansion of settlements in the West Bank, and its denial of Palestinian rights in Jerusalem. However, many analysts believe that Hamas had other motives for launching the attack, such as diverting attention from its internal problems, challenging its rival Fatah, and asserting its regional role.
Brett Bruen, a former U.S. diplomat and a leading expert on strategic communications, argues that Hamas’s attack was a strategic blunder that has backfired on the militant group. In an interview with Times Radio, Bruen said that Hamas had miscalculated the reaction of the international community, which had shown more sympathy and support for the Palestinian cause after the previous round of fighting in May. He said that Hamas had engaged in “brinkmanship and extreme tactics to burn leverage and advantage”, but instead had alienated its potential allies and partners. He said that Hamas had also underestimated the resilience and preparedness of the Israeli military, which had quickly mobilized its forces and launched a devastating counterattack. He said that Hamas had failed to achieve any of its political or military objectives, and had only inflicted more suffering and destruction on the Palestinian people.
Bruen also said that Hamas was steadily losing influence, especially in the international arena, where it is designated as a terrorist organization by many countries. He said that Hamas was facing increasing isolation and pressure from its neighbors, such as Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, which have been pursuing normalization and cooperation with Israel. He said that Hamas was also losing ground to its rival Fatah, which leads the Palestinian Authority and has been engaged in dialogue and negotiations with Israel and the United States. He said that Hamas had lost the trust and confidence of the Palestinian people, who are fed up with its authoritarian rule, corruption, and mismanagement of Gaza. He said that Hamas had also lost the moral high ground and the legitimacy of its resistance, which had turned into violence and extremism.
Bruen concluded that Hamas’s attack was a desperate and doomed attempt to regain relevance and power, but that it had only exposed its weakness and desperation. He said that Hamas had no future or vision for the Palestinian people, and that it was only interested in preserving its own interests and survival. He said that Hamas had become a part of the problem, not the solution, and that it was time for the Palestinian people to reject its ideology and tactics, and to embrace a peaceful and democratic path towards statehood and dignity. He said that the only way to end the cycle of violence and suffering was to resume the peace process and to pursue a two-state solution, based on mutual recognition and coexistence between Israel and Palestine. He said that this was the only hope and opportunity for the Palestinian people, and that Hamas had no role or place in it.
