Geopolitical Implications of the Shootdown of a US Drone near Crimea
The recent shootdown of a US drone near Crimea by the Russians has had significant implications for the geopolitical situation in the region. The American response has been to fly excellent reconnaissance aircraft further from Crimea but not reducing any intelligence collection capacity. They have also gotten NATO partners to escort the drones with fighters, daring the Russians to mess with that. This move has given the westerners a perfect, unchallengable pretext to fly armed interceptors out over the Black Sea as close to Crimea as they feel like while still staying in international air space.
The Russian response has been to give NATO the perfect opportunity to fly combat air patrols escorting data collection aircraft right off the coast of Crimea. While the NATO fighters deployed in Romania may not be capable of much by type, the Americans have a systematic game plan for asserting freedom of air/sea space transit practiced and honed for decades against a proper peer opponent like China. They start at a distance and then over time push to the edge of their definition of what international space is, daring the state asserting territorial control over that space to do something.
Thanks to FlightRadar and Igor Girkin, we have an excellent graphic showing NATO doing exactly the same thing next to Russia’s border opposite Finland. Every time one of these NATO planes flies up against the Russian border, precedent is set, and Russian air defenses are stressed. NATO has openly concentrated something like 150 combat jets in Romania and Poland, and from an operational point of view, they are ready for a confrontation with the Russian air force. They are likely almost looking for one thanks to how much damage the Ukrainians have done to the Russian air force already.
While clearer heads may prevail, the Americans are human, and the ones in the Biden administration and the Pentagon have to be fed up with Russian bluff and saber-rattling. The most inflammatory thing General Milley said at the post-drone-shootdown press conference was: “We WILL continue to assert our right to operate in international air space according to international norms.” This statement, combined with the American response, indicates that the US is ready to push the boundaries of what is considered acceptable in international air space, and NATO is likely to follow suit.
In conclusion, the shootdown of a US drone near Crimea has had significant implications for the geopolitical situation in the region. The American response and the NATO fighter escorts have given the westerners a perfect, unchallengable pretext to fly armed interceptors out over the Black Sea as close to Crimea as they feel like while still staying in international air space. NATO is likely to continue pushing the boundaries of what is considered acceptable in international air space, stressing Russian air defenses and setting a precedent every time they fly up against the Russian border. While clearer heads may prevail, the US and NATO are ready for a confrontation with the Russian air force, and it remains to be seen what the long-term implications of this will be.
