Generals in the Shadows: The New Cold War and a Weakening Russia
There are moments when a seemingly minor event portends significant shifts in the tectonic plates of world geopolitics. The recent unaccounted disappearance of two prominent Russian generals is one such moment. At first glance, it may appear as a trivial hiccup in the Russian power structure, but I believe we’ve been offered a terrifying glimpse into a potentially cataclysmic future: a Russia teetering on the brink of internal strife, a civil war sparked by factionalism among oligarchs and their private armies.
As we delve into this issue, it’s worth noting that President Putin appears weakened by this development. Historically, Putin’s iron grip over the Russian military has been a defining characteristic of his rule. But the apparent ‘mutiny’ by these two generals and their subsequent vanishing act suggest a deepening schism within the Russian establishment. Such instances of insubordination are often met with severe retribution within authoritarian regimes, which leaves us wondering about the fate of these two generals. Yet, more crucially, it raises questions about the current state of Putin’s authority and control.
The ripples of these events are likely to reach beyond the Russian heartland, as seen in the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. The Wagner Group, a private military company with alleged links to Putin and oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, is reportedly still active in Ukraine, according to the Pentagon. This is alarming, for the group is renowned for its opaque operations and absolute loyalty to Putin. The Wagner Group’s presence may further escalate the Ukraine conflict, making it a headache not only for Russia but for the entire international community.
Putin himself is in a conundrum. He has nurtured entities like the Wagner Group, allowing them to flourish under his reign. But their growing influence is a double-edged sword, for they also pose a significant challenge to Putin’s authority and national security. The Russian war effort in Ukraine is another area where the fallout from these internal divisions may surface. Although immediate ramifications may not be visible on Ukrainian battlegrounds, the steady resurgence of Ukraine in the eastern Donbass region suggests a possible erosion of Russia’s military clout.
As the drama unfolds, we watch with bated breath for the forthcoming press conference by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. However, the key question remains: is Putin now more of a threat given the events of the past week?
In my opinion, the answer is a resounding yes. We have seen Putin escalating his actions, as illustrated by the destruction of a significant dam in Ukraine. It was a strategic inflection point for NATO and the West, a call to action. Yet NATO, in my view, failed to respond adequately. This perceived lack of consequences may embolden Putin to escalate further, with grave potential outcomes such as attacking the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant or even deploying tactical nuclear weapons.
So, how should NATO and the West respond to this precarious situation?
Firstly, it’s vital to recognise that this is not just a war against Ukraine, but a war against NATO, the West, and democratic values as a whole. The preparation for war isn’t just a physical readiness but a mental preparedness. It calls for unity and strength, qualities that are currently obscured by the reports of discord within the UK Ministry of Defence, with reports of the Chief of the General Staff considering resigning due to cutbacks in the military.
Across the NATO alliance, nations must stand ready for worst-case scenarios, especially given the possibility of Russia descending into chaos. This chaos could potentially
involve control over 6,000 nuclear weapons, presenting an existential threat to global peace.
Therefore, NATO must act assertively and proactively. It should signal a clear intention to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join NATO as soon as conditions allow. The alliance must also enhance Ukraine’s capacity to strike back at Russia by supplying advanced weaponry such as missiles capable of sinking the Russian Black Sea Fleet and crippling the Kerch Bridge.
In essence, the ongoing developments in Russia and Ukraine signal a new phase in the world’s geopolitical landscape. As Russia faces internal strife, the West and NATO must demonstrate strength and resolve, rather than project an image of weakness or disunity. The situation is precarious, and the global community must be prepared for every possible outcome. We need a clear strategy and a strong stand to ensure that we do not descend into a deeper crisis.
