Erdogan is Playing Chess While Trump is Eating the Pieces and Shoving Them Up His Nose

6 min readFeb 27, 2025

You hear that Turkey might send “peacekeepers” to Ukraine? Yeah, sure. And I might get elected Pope. This isn’t about peacekeeping — this is about Recep Tayyip Erdogan playing a masterclass in international grift while Donald Trump plays with his shoelaces. Turkey isn’t sliding in to mediate; they’re moving in like a bookie collecting a debt.

Erdogan sees a power vacuum, and Trump, well… Trump is the vacuum. While Trump is busy yelling about NATO freeloaders and offering Zelenskyy “some land” like he’s a 19th-century railroad baron, Erdogan is working the angles, making backroom deals, and playing kingmaker. If Turkey pulls this off, Erdogan will have more control over Russia and Ukraine’s future than NATO, the EU, and the entire cast of The West Wing put together.

Trump’s Foreign Policy: A Dumpster Fire, But Somehow Wetter

Trump’s foreign policy — if you can call it that — is the equivalent of a toddler with a hammer running through a china shop, screaming “great deal” after every crash. Erdogan has been watching this cartoon unfold for years and knows exactly how to milk it. He’s done it before:

2019: Trump Dumps the Kurds → Turkey Marches In
Trump yanks U.S. troops out of Syria like a deadbeat landlord, and Erdogan rushes in to carve out territory and kick America’s allies in the teeth.
2020: Trump Sits on His Hands → Turkey Flexes in Libya
While the U.S. does its best impression of a lawn gnome, Erdogan sends troops, drones, and the whole Ottoman starter pack to Libya, cutting Europe out of the equation.
2020: Trump “Punishes” Turkey by… Doing Nothing
Erdogan buys Russian S-400 missiles, a direct “screw you” to NATO, and what does Trump do? He gives Turkey a pat on the head and an extra helping of mashed potatoes.

Now, Trump mumbles about letting Russia “keep some land,” and Erdogan sees his golden ticket to embed Turkish forces in Ukraine and reshape the entire security order to his liking.

Erdogan’s Plan: The Peacekeeping Con Job

Erdogan’s idea of “peacekeeping” is like putting a fox in charge of henhouse security. This isn’t about diplomacy — it’s about Turkey muscling in, grabbing leverage, and forcing everyone to dance to Ankara’s tune. The playbook is obvious:

Shake Hands with Russia — If Moscow accepts Turkish “peacekeepers,” Erdogan gets to look like a mediator while NATO’s influence craters.
Strong-Arm Ukraine — Turkey gets military access, sells weapons to everyone, and becomes the landlord of Eastern Europe.
Shut Out NATO — Label Turkish forces as “non-NATO peacekeepers,” forcing the U.S. and EU to sit in the corner while Erdogan and Putin carve up the post-war map.

This is a Trojan Horse so obvious it might as well have headlights and a parking ticket. If Erdogan gets his boots on Ukrainian soil, he owns the ceasefire, the security agreements, and maybe even the catering contracts.

Trump’s Role? The Clown at the Chessboard

This never would have been possible under a functioning U.S. foreign policy. But under Trump, America’s geopolitical standing is circling the drain like a turd in a gas station toilet. Erdogan knows that Trump:

✔ Understands diplomacy about as well as a goldfish understands algebra — He thinks foreign policy is about who flatters him the most on TV. ✔ Is addicted to empty “deals” — If Erdogan hands him a napkin with “PEACE PLAN” written in crayon, Trump will wave it at a rally like it’s the Treaty of Versailles. ✔ Loves dictators more than allies — Trump calls Erdogan, Putin, and Orban “strong leaders” while treating NATO like a broke cousin who won’t stop asking for gas money.

Erdogan isn’t just taking advantage of Trump’s weakness — he is building an entire empire on it while Trump tweets about dishwashers and windmills.

What Happens If Erdogan Pulls This Off?

If Turkey gets a foothold in Ukraine while Trump stumbles through another foreign policy “strategy,” we’re looking at:

Turkey Running the Security Show
NATO becomes an afterthought, and Erdogan dictates the future of Eastern Europe.
Europe Owes Turkey Even More
The EU already depends on Turkey to keep migrants from flooding into Europe. Now Erdogan can use his new Ukraine role to squeeze Europe for cash, influence, and free kebabs.
Russia Has a New Middleman
Putin would rather negotiate with Turkey than NATO any day of the week. This would let Russia and Turkey shape Ukraine’s fate without any pesky Western interference.
Trump Looks Even More Pathetic
A peacekeeping disaster under his watch would make his North Korea “denuclearization” stunt look like a Nobel Prize moment.

Conclusion: Erdogan is Playing Chess, Trump is Eating the Pieces and Calling It a “Great Deal”

Erdogan isn’t just taking advantage of Trump’s incompetence — he is rewriting the geopolitical playbook while Trump is too busy trying to impress Putin with “tough guy” talk. And the worst part? Trump won’t even notice until Erdogan is standing in Kyiv, holding a peace treaty in one hand and a NATO membership application in the other.

When Trump finally realizes he got played — probably six months too late — he’ll just shrug, call it a “beautiful deal,” and go back to ranting about electric cars.

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