El Salvador’s War on Gangs: A Success Story or a Slippery Slope?
El Salvador is a small but densely populated country in Central America, with strong economic and political ties to the United States. It is also strategically located near the Pacific Ocean and the Panama Canal, making it an attractive destination for trade and tourism. However, El Salvador has also been plagued by decades of instability, corruption, civil war, and poverty, which have fueled the rise of violent gangs, especially MS-13, which originated in Los Angeles among Salvadoran immigrants fleeing the civil war.
MS-13 and other gangs have terrorized the population with extortion, murder, and intimidation, making El Salvador one of the most dangerous places in the world. The gangs have also spread to other countries, including the United States, where they have been involved in drug trafficking, human smuggling, and other crimes3. The government of El Salvador has tried various strategies to deal with the gang problem, such as iron-fisted crackdowns, negotiations, and legal reforms, but none of them have been effective or sustainable. The crackdowns have often resulted in human rights violations, overcrowded prisons, and increased violence, while the negotiations have been seen as a sign of weakness and betrayal by the public and the security forces.
In 2019, a young and popular president, Nayib Bukele, was elected on a platform of eliminating the gangs and restoring order. He launched a territorial control plan that involved a massive investment in security, social, and economic programs, aimed at reclaiming the territories controlled by the gangs, providing opportunities and services to the vulnerable communities, and strengthening the institutions and the rule of law. The plan has been praised by many as a comprehensive and holistic approach to address the root causes and the consequences of the gang phenomenon.
In 2022, after a surge of violence that left 87 people dead in one weekend, Bukele declared a state of exception that suspended civil liberties and gave the police and military sweeping powers to arrest and detain anyone suspected of gang involvement. He also ordered a lockdown of the prisons housing gang members, cutting off their communication and imposing harsh conditions. Bukele claimed that these measures were necessary to prevent a coup attempt by the gangs, who he accused of trying to destabilize his government and sabotage his plan.
The state of exception has resulted in a dramatic reduction of crime and violence, and a high approval rating for Bukele and his plan. According to official statistics, the homicide rate dropped from 51 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2018 to 19 in 2023, the lowest in the country’s history. Bukele has also claimed that the gangs have been dismantled and that more than 90 percent of their leaders have been captured or killed. Bukele’s popularity has soared to over 90 percent, making him one of the most popular leaders in the world.
However, the state of exception has also raised concerns about human rights violations, abuses of power, and authoritarian tendencies. Many of the detainees have been held without due process, access to lawyers, or family visits, and some have died or suffered injuries in custody. Human rights organizations have denounced cases of torture, extrajudicial killings, and arbitrary arrests, as well as censorship, intimidation, and harassment of journalists, activists, and critics. Some have also warned that Bukele is using the state of exception to consolidate his control over the other branches of government, the media, and the civil society, and to undermine the checks and balances and the democratic institutions.
The question then is: Is El Salvador’s war on gangs a success story or a slippery slope? Is Bukele a visionary leader who is bringing peace and prosperity to his country, or a populist autocrat who is eroding its democracy and human rights? The answer may not be so simple or clear-cut, as there are trade-offs and risks involved in both scenarios. What is clear, however, is that El Salvador’s war on gangs is not over, and that its future will depend on the choices and actions of its people, its government, and its international partners.
