Does Ukraine Need Another Big Offensive in 2024?

The war between Ukraine and Russia has entered its third year, with no end in sight. After the failure of Ukraine’s spring offensive in 2023, many are wondering whether Ukraine should try again in 2024, or adopt a different strategy. In this blog post, I will analyze the pros and cons of four possible scenarios for Ukraine’s military strategy in 2024, based on the video by Binkov’s Battlegrounds and other sources.

Scenario 1: Ukraine launches a big offensive in 2024

Pros

• Ukraine could exploit Russia’s exhaustion and overstretch, as well as the continued sanctions and isolation from the West, to inflict heavy losses on the Russian forces and regain some strategic areas, such as the Donbas, Crimea, or the Azov Sea coast.
• Ukraine could demonstrate its resolve and determination to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to deter future Russian aggression.
• Ukraine could boost its public morale and support, as well as its international legitimacy and recognition, by achieving some military victories and liberating some of its citizens from the Russian occupation.

Cons

• Ukraine could face a strong Russian counterattack, as well as political and diplomatic pressure from the West to stop the escalation. Russia could also escalate the conflict to other regions, such as Belarus, Moldova, or the Baltic states, or even use nuclear weapons, if it feels threatened or desperate.
• Ukraine could suffer high casualties and damage to its infrastructure and economy, as well as lose some of its allies and partners, who might not be willing or able to support a prolonged and costly war.
• Ukraine could fail to achieve its objectives, or even lose more territory, if its offensive is poorly planned, executed, or coordinated, or if it faces unexpected resistance or sabotage from the local population or the separatist forces.

Scenario 2: Ukraine does not launch a big offensive in 2024, but continues to conduct small-scale operations and raids along the front lines, while preparing for a future offensive

Pros

• Ukraine could avoid a direct confrontation with Russia, while keeping the initiative and momentum in the war. Ukraine could also use the time to improve its military capabilities and readiness, as well as to seek more support from the West, for a future offensive.
• Ukraine could inflict some damage and casualties on the Russian forces, as well as disrupt their supply lines and communication networks, by conducting surprise attacks and ambushes, using guerrilla tactics, drones, and special forces.
• Ukraine could maintain its public morale and support, as well as its international legitimacy and recognition, by showing its resilience and resistance to the Russian aggression, and by holding on to its current positions.

Cons

• Ukraine could lose the opportunity to regain its lost territories and to force Russia to negotiate a peace deal, if it waits too long or misses a window of opportunity. Russia could also use the time to reinforce its forces and fortify its positions, or to launch a preemptive strike, if it anticipates a Ukrainian offensive.
• Ukraine could face the risk of a diplomatic settlement that would favor Russia’s interests, if the West loses interest or patience in the war, or if the international pressure on Russia decreases. Ukraine could also face the challenge of maintaining the unity and stability of the country, as well as the legitimacy and popularity of the government, if the war drags on without a clear end or outcome.

Scenario 3: Ukraine does not launch a big offensive in 2024, but instead focuses on defending its current positions and consolidating its control over the rest of the country, while seeking a diplomatic solution to the conflict

Pros

• Ukraine could avoid further casualties and damage to its infrastructure and economy by avoiding a direct confrontation with Russia. Ukraine could also preserve its sovereignty and territorial integrity, by holding on to its current positions.
• Ukraine could benefit from the economic and political assistance from the West, as well as the international pressure on Russia to end the aggression, by seeking a diplomatic solution to the conflict. Ukraine could also hope for a political or social change in Russia that would lead to a more cooperative or democratic regime, or a change in the international or regional situation that would favor Ukraine’s interests.

Cons

• Ukraine could lose the opportunity to regain its lost territories and to deter future Russian aggression, by accepting a status quo that would leave Russia in control of large parts of Ukraine. Ukraine could also face the risk of a frozen conflict that would prevent its integration with the West, and create security and humanitarian problems for the people living in the occupied areas.
• Ukraine could lose the support and confidence of its own people, as well as its allies and partners, by showing its weakness and inability to defend its country. Ukraine could also face the challenge of maintaining the unity and stability of the country, as well as the legitimacy and popularity of the government, if the war ends without a clear victory or justice.

Scenario 4: Ukraine does not launch a big offensive in 2024, but instead opts for a long game war, in which it tries to outlast and exhaust Russia, while waiting for a favorable change in the international or regional situation

Pros

• Ukraine could exploit Russia’s economic and demographic weaknesses, as well as its isolation and sanctions from the West, to undermine its ability and willingness to sustain the war. Ukraine could also hope for a political or social change in Russia that would lead to a more cooperative or democratic regime, or a change in the international or regional situation that would favor Ukraine’s interests.
• Ukraine could demonstrate its resolve and determination to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to deter future Russian aggression, by showing its endurance and resistance to the Russian aggression, and by holding on to its current positions.
• Ukraine could maintain its public morale and support, as well as its international legitimacy and recognition, by showing its courage and sacrifice in the face of a superior enemy, and by appealing to the values and principles of the West.

Cons

• Ukraine could face a prolonged and costly war, with no clear end or outcome, that would drain its resources and resilience, and that would expose it to the risk of a nuclear escalation or a regional war, if Russia feels threatened or desperate.
• Ukraine could lose the support and patience of the West, as well as the trust and confidence of its own people, by engaging in a seemingly hopeless and endless war, that would offer no prospects of peace or victory.
• Ukraine could fail to achieve its objectives, or even lose more territory, if its long game war strategy is poorly planned, executed, or coordinated, or if it faces unexpected resistance or sabotage from the local population or the separatist forces.

Conclusion

There is no easy or optimal choice for Ukraine, and each scenario has its own risks and benefits. The decision should be based on a careful assessment of the costs and benefits of each option, as well as on the national interests and values of Ukraine. The West should also continue to support Ukraine and to deter Russia from further aggression, by providing military, economic, and political assistance, as well as by imposing sanctions and isolation on Russia. The war between Ukraine and Russia is not only a war for territory, but also a war for democracy, freedom, and security in Europe and beyond.