Deterrence by Detection in the South China Sea: A Necessary Step Forward
In recent years, the South China Sea has become a focal point of geopolitical tensions. The vast expanse of water, rich in resources and crucial for global trade, has seen a rise in territorial disputes, particularly involving China and its neighboring countries. The situation has escalated to a point where international conventions and legal rulings seem to be disregarded, leading to a pressing need for a more proactive approach. One such strategy, as proposed by the Center for Strategic Budget Assessment, is the operation they’ve termed “deterrence by detection,” which involves increasing the presence of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) over the South China Sea.
The South China Sea Drama
The heart of the matter lies in the South China Sea, where the Philippines maintains an outpost on the Second Thomas Shoal. Recently, the Chinese Coast Guard attempted to block the resupply of a small contingent of Philippine Marines stationed there. This isn’t an isolated incident. The Chinese Coast Guard has consistently tried to disrupt shipments to this outpost, emphasizing the ongoing territorial disputes in the region.
The Philippines, in a symbolic move, has grounded the BRP Sierra Madre on the shoal. This grounded vessel, deteriorating over time, serves as a makeshift base for the Marines. The very presence of these Marines is a statement by the Philippines, asserting their territorial rights.
The Nine-Dash Line and the Law of the Sea Convention
The root of the conflict can be traced back to the “nine-dash line,” a demarcation used by China to claim vast parts of the South China Sea. This claim, based on historical precedents dating back to the Ming Dynasty, has been a point of contention with neighboring countries like Vietnam and the Philippines. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) serves as the legal framework governing maritime rights and responsibilities. Both China and the Philippines have ratified UNCLOS, agreeing to its provisions.
However, when disputes arose, the Philippines took the matter to the Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2013. In 2016, the court ruled against China’s claims within the nine-dash line, stating that they had no legal basis. The ruling emphasized that China should “respect the rights and freedoms of the Philippines.”
Deterrence by Detection: A Step in the Right Direction
Despite the court’s ruling, China’s activities in the South China Sea have not ceased. This brings us to the strategy of “deterrence by detection.” By increasing UAV surveillance, the aim is to document illegal activities, from territorial incursions to resource harvesting. This documentation will serve as undeniable evidence of any violations, which can then be presented to the international community.
The proposed plan suggests launching UAVs from both Guam and the Philippines. While Guam offers a more extended range, launching from the Philippines is more efficient due to its proximity to the South China Sea. The goal is to maximize coverage and gather as much data as possible.
Conclusion
While skeptics might argue that this strategy might not yield immediate results, especially given China’s disregard for the 2016 ruling, it is a necessary step. Before any further actions can be taken, there needs to be irrefutable evidence of wrongdoing. “Deterrence by detection” provides a non-confrontational approach to gather this evidence. In a world where international laws and conventions are being tested, it’s crucial to reinforce the importance of transparency, accountability, and diplomacy.
