Day 656: The Battle of Avdiivka
The situation in the north
The northern part of the Avdiivka region has seen the biggest changes in the past few days. After failing to encircle the whole town, Russian forces downsized their offensive operation and focused on capturing the southern half of Avdiivka. However, this also meant that they lost the initiative along the railways, where Ukrainian forces have been launching counterattacks.
One of the key points of contention is the village of Stepove, which lies about 5 km northwest of Avdiivka. Some Russian sources claimed that they had gained a foothold in the central part of the village and continued their offensive operations. However, according to the freshest combat footage, the furthest they managed to reach was the third house on the outskirts. Ukrainian fighters from the 47th Mechanized Brigade published a video showing how three Russian soldiers sneaked into the remnants of the demolished house. The whole group was promptly eliminated in a strike.
Most Russian assault units are even less successful than that. Today’s combat footage shows how Ukrainians identified a small group of Russians that were moving along the tree lines toward the village and accurately hit it with the first shell. Such precision likely means that Ukrainians know the regular Russian routes and have their guns pointed at them and ready to shoot at any time. What is also interesting is that the Russian assault units became much smaller. In this video, the assault is conducted by just six Russian soldiers, while a few weeks ago, the regular unit size was from 15 to 20 soldiers. And this is not surprising because Russian soldiers here do not receive as many reinforcements as previously while the old units are virtually completely demolished.
A Russian soldier recently released a video describing the situation. He said that seven days ago, his unit had 75 soldiers and that right now, only 14 of them are still alive. He said that they are located around 500 meters from Ukrainian positions, and due to the constant artillery, mortar, and drone fire, they cannot even collect their dead soldiers, so the forest around them is full of corpses. His words were quickly substantiated because less than one minute after he got out of the shelter, Ukrainians immediately opened mortar fire at their positions.
Another Russian soldier from the nearby positions showed the aftermath of a Ukrainian drone strike. This time, the Russians got lucky as the drone narrowly missed the shelter and did not explode. The Ukrainian side also posted more videos of the attempts to dislodge Russian forces from their positions along the tree line.
Many Russian assault units are caught by surprise in the middle of their journey to the positions, and they are literally chased down by the drones. Some soldiers try to hide, but with no shelters around, it is only a matter of time until the unit is eliminated. A Ukrainian reconnaissance drone operator showed the aftermath of one such hunt. The video shows two different assault units consisting of around 10 people that were caught and destroyed at different parts of the same tree line. One Russian soldier who barely survived by pretending to be dead showed the results of one such raid.
So, Russian forces in this region are facing a stark shortage of troops. With most of the manpower having been spent during the unsuccessful frontal assaults on Stepove and no adequate reinforcements in sight, Ukrainians started hitting deeper and deeper. Some Russian analysts claimed that the rapid shift of focus of Russian forces away from this region is unjustified because Ukrainians will highly likely attempt to improve their tactical positions, negating the gains that Russians achieved at high cost.
The situation in the south
Meanwhile, in the southern part of the Avdiivka region, Ukrainian forces have also been resisting the Russian pressure. One of the main targets of the Russian forces is the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, which is the largest coke producer in Ukraine and a strategic asset for the Ukrainian economy. The plant is located just outside the town, and its capture would give the Russians a significant advantage.
However, Ukrainian forces have been defending the plant with determination, repelling several Russian attacks. The plant’s director, Musa Magomedov, said that the plant was still operating despite the shelling, and that the workers were ready to fight for it. He also thanked the Ukrainian army for their support and protection.
The industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka has also been the scene of intense clashes, as Russian forces have been trying to break through the Ukrainian lines. The Russians have been using tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and snipers to advance, but the Ukrainians have been countering them with anti-tank missiles, machine guns, and grenades. The industrial zone is a maze of factories, warehouses, and pipelines, which makes the fighting difficult and dangerous.
The situation in the east
The eastern part of the Avdiivka region has also seen some action, as Ukrainian forces have been conducting raids and strikes on the Russian positions. One of the most notable operations was the missile strike on the city of Makiivka, which is a twin city of Donetsk and a major Russian base. Ukrainian sources reported that they used four Himars rockets to hit one of the main fuel depots in the region, causing a huge explosion and a fire.
The strike was one of the deadliest attacks on the Russian troops since the war began, as hundreds of soldiers were killed or wounded. The exact number of casualties is still unclear, as different sources give different figures. The Ukrainian army claimed that nearly 400 soldiers were killed and 300 injured, while the Russian army initially confirmed that 63 soldiers were killed, but later raised the death toll to 89. Some independent sources suggested that the number of dead could be even higher, as many bodies were burned beyond recognition.
The strike also caused panic and anger among the local population, as many civilians were affected by the blast and the fire. Some residents accused the Russian army of using them as human shields, and demanded that they leave the city. Others blamed the Ukrainian army for targeting civilians, and vowed to resist them. The city’s authorities declared a state of emergency, and asked for humanitarian aid.
Conclusion
The battle of Avdiivka is a crucial test for both sides, as it could determine the fate of the war. The town is a strategic stronghold for the Ukrainian forces, as it prevents the Russians from using Donetsk as a communications hub and from breaking through on this axis. The town is also a symbol of resistance and resilience, as it has been under fire for over a year, but has not fallen. The Ukrainian forces have shown courage and determination in defending the town, despite the overwhelming odds. The Russian forces have shown aggression and brutality in attacking the town, despite the high costs.
The battle is not over yet, as both sides are preparing for more clashes. The winter weather could also affect the fighting, as it brings more challenges and risks. The international community has been watching the situation with concern, and has been calling for a peaceful resolution. However, the prospects for a diplomatic solution seem bleak, as the parties remain far apart on their positions and demands. The war in eastern Ukraine continues, and the people of Avdiivka are still living on the edge.
