Crossing the Dnipro: Ukraine’s Bold Maneuver and Russia’s Desperate Response

The situation in Ukraine has reached a critical juncture, with the Ukrainian Army’s efforts to cross the Dnipro River becoming a focal point in the ongoing conflict. This move, if successful, could have profound implications for Russia’s position in the region and for President Putin’s regime. Here’s an in-depth look at the strategic significance of this maneuver, its potential impact on the war, and Russia’s desperate efforts to halt it.

The Strategic Importance of Crossing the Dnipro River

In June 2023, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive aiming to cross the Dnieper River on two fronts. The occupied area stretches in an unbroken land corridor from Crimea in the South to Luhansk in the north up to the Russian border. Crimea is the hub from which much of the Russian forces stationed in Ukraine draw their supplies. Its military value to the Russians cannot be overstated.

Vladimir Putin has staked a significant amount of his personal prestige at home over his illegal annexation of the peninsula in 2014. If Crimea were to be lost, it would be a catastrophic political turn of events for Putin’s regime and the Russian war effort.

The Ukrainian Strategy

Succeeding with a river crossing at Cassan would have one and only one aim in mind: cut off Crimea from the rest of the Russian forces in Ukraine. While an assault on the peninsula itself is unlikely, a straight push across the top of Crimea to the Sea of Azov would cut it off from all the Russian forces in Ukraine and subject it to siege-type conditions.

The Russians have heavily fortified their bank of the river, and about 40,000 Russian troops are stationed in the sector. Their task is to pin the Ukrainian troops on the West Bank of the river and prevent them from reinforcing other sectors of the front.

The Challenges of Crossing

Crossing the river would be a daunting challenge for the Ukrainians. Russian artillery, drones, and helicopters would make crossing operations costly. Ukrainian soldiers that made it to the other side would then have to deal with mines and trench networks, which can be easily resupplied and reinforced.

However, if Ukrainian soldiers managed to force Russians to retreat from their positions on the Eastern side of the Dnipro, they would be less than 100 miles from Crimea. It is the highest risk and highest reward counter-offensive option for the Ukrainians.

Russia’s Desperate Measures

Russia may be resorting to humanitarian disasters to prevent even the possibility of such an effort. The destruction of the Novakovka Dam on June 6 helped prevent a counter-offensive in the Casson region, although it made Crimea’s water supply more precarious.

The destruction of the dam also threatens the water supply for the Zafaresian nuclear power plant, the largest nuclear reactor in Europe. Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Chief warned that the Russians had mined the plant’s cooler and had plans in place to sabotage the plant, which could lead to a nuclear disaster.

The Current Situation

In late June, reports of Ukrainian special operators conducting new probing operations on the Left Bank of the river swirled around Russian social media channels. According to Russian military bloggers, a Ukrainian force of about 70 men crossed the river and forced Russian forces on the other side to fall back.

The Russians considered this incursion important enough to use an Iskander ballistic missile on the bridge. Whether the boats were used or whether more such tactics will come remains to be seen.

Conclusion

An assault across the Dnipro straight toward Crimea is still the least likely option among Ukraine’s potential strategies. However, Putin and his regime would lose so much if the Ukrainians successfully carried out an amphibious operation that they will resort to almost any escalation to ensure that it does not happen.

The situation is fluid, and the stakes are high. The Ukrainian Army’s efforts to cross the Dnipro River could be a game-changer in the ongoing conflict, with profound implications for both sides.