Clash for Control: The Battle Intensifies in Velyka Novosilka

The conflict in Ukraine has entered a new phase, with a significant increase in military activity in the Velyka Novosilka direction. This area has seen a surge in offensive operations by Russian forces targeting the strategically significant villages of Staromaiorske and Urozhaine. These villages, situated to the south of Velyka Novosilka, are of both tactical and symbolic importance as they were among the last settlements recaptured by Ukrainian forces during their counteroffensive in the summer of 2023.

The Strategic Importance of Velyka Novosilka

Velyka Novosilka serves as a vital stronghold for Ukrainian forces, surrounded by rivers and functioning as a critical logistical node supplying the southern settlements. The capture of this town by Russian forces would severely disrupt Ukrainian logistics and fortifications in the region. This would not only represent a significant tactical victory but also potentially facilitate Russian efforts to link up with their operations in the southeastern Donetsk region, where they aim to encircle Vuhledar following repeated frontal assault failures.

Increased Offensive Operations

After months of relative inactivity, the sudden spike in offensive actions can be attributed to several factors. Both sides had previously refrained from large-scale operations due to the dangers posed by advancing across open fields to reach the first defensive lines. However, analysts suggest that the apparent inactivity allowed Ukrainian forces to redeploy personnel to other critical front-line areas. Coupled with a shortage of material supplies, this redeployment might have created an opportunity for Russian forces to make unexpected advances toward Staromaiorske and Urozhaine.

In recent weeks, Russian forces have managed to advance approximately one and a half kilometers west of Staromaiorske. The topography of the area, characterized by its higher altitude, has made control of key hills a focal point of the fighting. A recent Russian attack forced Ukrainian defenders to retreat from a strategic hill, leading to intense combat within Staromaiorske itself. Despite strong resistance from Ukrainian forces, the situation remains fluid and highly contested.

Tactical Shifts and Use of Advanced Weaponry

Russian forces have escalated their use of loitering munitions, targeting deep Ukrainian positions away from the immediate front line. Geolocated footage has captured Lancet drone strikes against Ukrainian artillery systems near Velyka Novosilka. Additionally, the partial destruction of a critical bridge over the Mokri Yaly River by a Kh-38ML air-to-ground missile highlights Russian efforts to disrupt Ukrainian logistics.

These attacks indicate that Russian forces have exploited gaps in Ukrainian air defense, which have been somewhat mitigated by the arrival of new materials from American aid packages. Despite these setbacks, Ukrainian forces have demonstrated resilience, employing FPV drones, artillery strikes, and tactical maneuvers to counter Russian advances.

Ukrainian Countermeasures and Defensive Operations

In Urozhaine, heavy clashes have been reported, starting with extensive Russian aerial bombardments aimed at setting the stage for mechanized and infantry attacks. Despite initial advances, Russian forces have faced strong resistance, failing to achieve a decisive breakthrough. Ukrainian defensive operations have included successful counterattacks, capturing Russian positions and prisoners, and leveraging artillery and drone strikes to halt Russian assaults.

Notably, geolocated footage has shown Ukrainian forces effectively using a single tank to repel a Russian advance involving a tank and two armored infantry vehicles. The footage captures the Ukrainian tank hitting the Russian tank, prompting a hasty retreat by the accompanying armored vehicles.

Broader Strategic Implications

Military analysts view the recent Russian offensive activity as part of a broader strategy to stretch the Ukrainian front line through diversionary attacks. These multiple probe attacks are seen as preludes to summer offensive efforts aimed at catching Ukrainian defenders off guard and forcing them to reallocate limited personnel and resources. However, the lack of a clear strategic objective in this direction suggests that Russian forces might struggle to sustain these advances against determined Ukrainian defenses.

Overall, the situation south of Velyka Novosilka remains dynamic and contested. While Russian forces have increased the intensity of their attacks, they have yet to achieve a decisive breakthrough. Ukrainian defenders continue to employ effective countermeasures, leveraging their resilience and adaptability to maintain their positions. The ongoing conflict underscores the complex and evolving nature of the war in Ukraine, with both sides vying for control of strategically significant territories.