China’s Stagnation Under Xi Jinping

China’s present and future under Xi Jinping have come under scrutiny, as the nation appears to be entering a period of stagnation. Ian Johnson’s recent analysis of Xi’s leadership lays the groundwork for understanding this shift. He argues that unlike his more pragmatic predecessors — Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping — Xi has displayed a rigid, inflexible approach to governance that is affecting all facets of Chinese society. My article aims to further amplify Johnson’s points while incorporating additional data that frames the current state of affairs in China.

Xi Jinping’s Grip on Power

Xi Jinping’s tenure has been characterized by an increasing consolidation of power. This could be interpreted as a classic maneuver to exert control, particularly in times of crisis. However, the accumulation of authority has not been coupled with adept crisis management. From the pandemic to economic slowdowns and social unrest, Xi has demonstrated an unwillingness to pivot, adapt, or modernize his strategies. It’s not just about holding the reins tightly; it’s about steering the carriage in the wrong direction.

A Comparative Lack of Vision

When comparing Xi to predecessors like Mao and Deng, one has to account for the vastly different challenges they faced. Mao led a revolution and aimed to reconstruct a fractured nation, while Deng championed modernization at a time when China desperately needed economic reform. Both displayed the ability to adjust strategies when their initial plans didn’t pan out — Mao eventually easing off the radicalism of the Cultural Revolution and Deng pushing for a more open economy after years of stagnation.

Xi, in contrast, seems to be driven by an agenda that places control over progress. The core issue here isn’t just a lack of flexibility but a lack of vision. Visionaries adapt because they can align new pathways with overarching objectives; Xi’s objectives, on the other hand, seem murkily confined to self-preservation and internal stabilization.

Economic Concerns

Stifling innovation, creativity, and individualism has far-reaching economic repercussions. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), China’s economic growth is expected to decelerate from 8.1% in 2022 to 5.6% in 2023. The country is facing structural impediments like an aging population, declining labor force, and rising debt, issues that require innovative solutions and adaptive policies, not just a hardline stance that stifles creativity and dissent.

Global Image and Human Rights

China’s declining reputation on the global stage is another worrying trend. According to a survey by Pew Research Center, only 34% of people across 17 advanced economies have a favorable view of China. This decline in global perception isn’t just about geopolitics; it’s about the human condition. Freedom House’s damning assessment of China’s human rights record — with a score of 9 out of 100 — highlights the toll that Xi’s policies are taking on civil liberties and individual freedoms.

The Internal Struggle

While Johnson warns that Xi faces growing resistance and discontent both domestically and internationally, this is especially significant within China. The younger generation is better educated, more connected, and diverse in thought and aspirations. They are the harbingers of future change and innovation, and their disillusionment with the current state of affairs should be a warning sign. Ignoring or suppressing this bubbling discontent could lead to volatile outcomes.

Conclusion

Ian Johnson calls for a balanced and nuanced approach to understanding China and encourages engagement with its civil society. This is crucial not just for China’s democratic aspirations but also for its sustainable development in an increasingly interconnected world. While Xi Jinping’s policies may offer a veneer of stability, they conceal undercurrents of stagnation and dissatisfaction that are far more disruptive in the long run.

China stands at a crossroads where the path chosen by its leadership will have global ramifications. A rigid, unyielding approach, characterized by a lack of vision and fueled by insecurity, is a recipe for stagnation. As Johnson rightly points out, China’s future is uncertain but ever more crucial for us all to comprehend and engage with constructively.