China, Russia and Iran: a threat or an opportunity for the West?
Today I want to bring you an article based on an interview with Sir Kim Darroch, a former British national security advisor and ambassador to the US, who discusses the rising challenges posed by China, Russia and Iran to the Western-led international order. He argues that these three countries are forming a “new anti-NATO coalition” that is testing the resolve and unity of the West, especially in the cases of Ukraine and Taiwan. He also expresses some optimism that the West can still deter and contain these adversaries, if it acts decisively and coherently.
I agree with Sir Kim that the West is facing a serious threat from the growing alignment of China, Russia and Iran, which share a common interest in undermining the US-led global system and expanding their own spheres of influence. These countries have increased their military, economic and diplomatic cooperation in recent years, as evidenced by their joint naval exercises in the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf, their support for the Syrian regime and the Taliban, their opposition to the US sanctions and withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, and their coordination in international organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the UN Security Council.
However, I also think that the West has some advantages and opportunities to counter this challenge, if it can leverage its own strengths and exploit the weaknesses and contradictions of its rivals. First, the West still enjoys a superior position in terms of its economic size, technological innovation, democratic values and soft power, which make it an attractive partner for many countries in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Second, the West can revitalize its alliances and partnerships, such as NATO, the Quad, the EU and the UK, to present a united front and a credible deterrence against the aggression and coercion of China, Russia and Iran. Third, the West can engage in dialogue and diplomacy with these countries, where possible, to reduce tensions, manage crises and seek areas of common interest, such as climate change, non-proliferation and regional stability.
Finally, the West can also exploit the inherent weaknesses and contradictions of the China-Russia-Iran axis, which is not a monolithic or cohesive bloc, but rather a pragmatic and opportunistic alignment of convenience. These countries have divergent interests, values and ambitions, which can create frictions and conflicts among them. For example, China and Russia are competing for influence and resources in Central Asia and the Arctic, while Iran and Russia have different views on the future of Syria and the role of Turkey. Moreover, these countries face their own domestic and external challenges, such as human rights violations, corruption, economic slowdown, social unrest, ethnic tensions, regional rivalries and international isolation, which can undermine their stability and legitimacy.
Therefore, I believe that the West should not be complacent or fatalistic about the rise of the China-Russia-Iran coalition, but rather adopt a proactive and balanced strategy that combines deterrence, engagement and differentiation, to defend its interests and values, and to uphold the rules-based international order.
