Bashkortostan: A Test for Russia’s Unity and Stability
The recent protests in Bashkortostan, a Russian republic with a large Muslim Turkic population, have drawn attention to the simmering discontent and separatist sentiments among some of Russia’s ethnic minorities. The protests, which were triggered by the imprisonment of a local activist, Fail Alsynov, who advocated for the preservation of the Bashkir language and environment, have also exposed the fragility of Russia’s territorial integrity and stability, especially in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine. The question is whether the events in Bashkortostan indicate a possible collapse of the Russian Federation, or whether they are a temporary phenomenon that can be contained by the central authorities.
Bashkortostan is one of the most populous and prosperous republics in Russia, with a population of about 4 million people, mostly ethnic Bashkirs and Russians. It has significant natural resources, such as oil, gas, gold, and limestone, and a diverse cultural heritage, influenced by Islam, Turkic, and Russian traditions. Bashkortostan was an autonomous Soviet republic within the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (RSFSR) until 1992, when it became a constituent republic of the newly formed Russian Federation. It adopted a new constitution and a new name, Bashkortostan, to reflect its Turkic identity and aspirations for greater autonomy.
However, since the late 1990s, Bashkortostan’s autonomy has been gradually eroded by the centralization policies of President Vladimir Putin, who appointed loyal governors and curtailed the powers of the local parliament and courts. Many Bashkirs feel marginalized and discriminated by the federal authorities, who exploit their natural resources and impose Russian language and culture on them.
In April 2023, Fail Alsynov, a prominent Bashkir activist and leader of the banned Bashkort movement, participated in protests against gold mining operations in the Irendik mountain range, which threatened the local environment and sacred sites. He was arrested and charged with inciting hatred and extremism, based on a speech he gave at the rally, where he criticized the Russian government and called for the protection of the Bashkir people and land.
In January 2024, Alsynov was sentenced to four years in prison, sparking mass protests in his hometown of Baymak and the regional capital of Ufa. Thousands of Bashkirs took to the streets, demanding his release and the resignation of the governor, Radiy Khabirov, who had filed a complaint against him. The protesters clashed with the riot police, who used tear gas and batons to disperse them. Dozens of people were detained and injured, and some social media platforms were blocked in the region.
The protests in Bashkortostan were also influenced by the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has increased the tensions and grievances of Russia’s ethnic minorities, who feel the negative effects of the international sanctions, the economic decline, and the nationalist rhetoric of the Kremlin. Some Bashkirs have expressed solidarity with the Ukrainians and the Crimean Tatars, who have faced repression and annexation by Russia. Others have voiced their desire for more autonomy or even independence from Russia, citing the examples of Chechnya, Georgia, and Moldova.
The events in Bashkortostan pose a serious challenge to Russia’s unity and stability, as they reveal the deep-rooted dissatisfaction and alienation of some of its ethnic groups, who do not feel represented or respected by the central government. The protests also demonstrate the vulnerability of Russia’s territorial integrity, as they show the potential for secessionist movements to emerge and escalate in other regions with ethnic minorities, especially in the context of the war in Ukraine, which has undermined Russia’s international legitimacy and security.
The question is whether the Russian authorities can manage the situation and prevent further escalation, by addressing the legitimate demands and grievances of the Bashkirs and other ethnic groups, or whether they will resort to more repression and violence, which could backfire and fuel more resentment and resistance. The answer will have significant implications for the future of the Russian Federation, and for the regional and global order.
