Avdiivka Under Siege: How Ukraine Fights Back Against Russia’s New Offensive

Avdiivka, a strategic town in the heart of the Donetsk region, has been under constant attack by Russian forces and their proxies since February 2022. Despite the overwhelming odds, the Ukrainian defenders have managed to repel dozens of assaults and inflict heavy casualties on the invaders. This is the story of how Ukraine is holding its ground in one of the most fortified and contested areas of the Donbas war.

The Battle of Avdiivka: A Brief Overview

Avdiivka is a key location for both sides of the conflict. For Ukraine, it is a gateway to the city of Donetsk, the capital of the occupied Donbas region. By controlling Avdiivka, Ukraine prevents Russia from using Donetsk and its resources as a military communications hub and blocks any further Russian advances on this axis. For Russia, Avdiivka is a thorn in its side, a symbol of Ukrainian resistance and resilience. By capturing Avdiivka, Russia hopes to push the front line away from Donetsk and secure a strategic advantage over Ukraine.

The battle of Avdiivka began on February 21, 2022, when Russia officially recognized the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic and renewed its invasion of Ukraine. Avdiivka was one of the main targets of the Russian offensive, and since then, it has been subjected to intense shelling, bombing, and ground attacks. According to the General Staff of Ukraine, the Ukrainian forces have faced more than 2,000 troops, dozens of armored vehicles, and jets in what is described as the largest-scale attack in this area.

The Ukrainian defenders, however, have put up a fierce fight, using their superior knowledge of the terrain, their advanced weaponry, and their high morale. They have also received support from the local population, who have refused to leave their homes despite the danger. According to Vitaliy Barabash, the head of Avdiivka’s military administration, more than 1,600 residents remain in the town, many of them living in basements.

The Latest Developments: Russia’s New Plan of Attack

In December 2022, Russia changed its plan of attack in the northern part of the Avdiivka region. Up until this point, the main target of the Russian forces was Berdychi, a village north of Avdiivka. By reaching this settlement, Russia would be able to establish tight fire control over the supply roads and put Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka into an operational encirclement. However, this plan proved to be unsuccessful, as the Ukrainian forces were able to hold their positions and destroy the Russian assault units as soon as they crossed the rails.

After seeing minimal to no gains in the Berdychi direction, the Russian commanders were forced to change their operational goals. Based on the fact that Russia recently shifted its focus a bit to the south, it became clear that Russia decided to decrease the scale of the encirclement operation and aim for a smaller but more achievable target: the Khimik train station. This station is located just south of the main Ukrainian fortification: the chemical plant. The goal here is to move along the residential area towards the center of Avdiivka and cut off Ukrainian forces in the southern part of the town. A successful Russian advance in this region would indeed be catastrophic for Ukraine, as all Ukrainian supply roads are moving exactly through this region.

The new Russian plan of downsizing their offensive operation to match the amount of resources available is actually quite clever, but it does not mean that the execution will be smooth or easy. The biggest weakness of the Russian forces in this case is their logistics. By choosing this vector of attack, the Russian commanders basically forced their soldiers to use some of the riskiest and most exposed routes. The roads have already become notorious among Russian soldiers, as they are under Ukrainian anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) fire control from the chemical plant and also drones. Even if Russian soldiers travel by foot, which is mostly how they travel in this region, there is virtually no possibility for them to accumulate forces in front of Ukrainian positions for an easier and quicker attack. So, they cannot copy the tactic that they used along the railways.

Ukrainians, in turn, have a dense residential area and a small forest at their disposal, and they are also within a hundred meters from their main base. Since the area is split into two parts by the water reservoir, Russian forces opened two directions of attack: towards the residential area and the water pumping station.

When it comes to the station, the results were devastating for the Russians. Ukrainian fighters from the famous 110th mechanized brigade released one of the most brutal and graphic combat footage of the aftermath. Since Russian soldiers had to assault in the open, many of them did not even reach the pumping station. The drones quickly detected them and started hunting them down together with mortar teams. As a result, there was no intact corpse on the ground. The fire was precise, and virtually no one survived the explosions. Those that survived were doomed anyway.

Because the supporting attack failed, Russian forces in the residential area could not develop their operation due to crossfire, even though they achieved initial success and got a foothold in the first four lines of houses. After the attack was stopped by the defenders on the ground, Ukrainian fighters from the Khorne Group were redeployed from Stepove to this region to clear it. Ukrainians conducted a counterattack and pushed the Russians back to their original positions.

The Future of Avdiivka: A Stalemate or a Breakthrough?

The battle of Avdiivka is not over yet. Both sides are still determined to achieve their strategic objectives, and neither side is willing to compromise or negotiate. The situation remains tense and volatile, with daily clashes and casualties. The fate of Avdiivka and its people hangs in the balance.

What will happen next? Will Russia continue its relentless assault and eventually break through the Ukrainian defense? Or will Ukraine hold its ground and repel the invaders once and for all? Will the international community intervene and put pressure on Russia to stop the aggression and respect the sovereignty of Ukraine? Or will the conflict escalate and spread to other regions, potentially triggering a wider war?

These are the questions that many observers and analysts are asking, but no one can answer with certainty. The only thing that is clear is that the battle of Avdiivka is not just a local skirmish, but a pivotal moment in the history of the Donbas war and the future of Europe. It is a test of will, courage, and resilience for both sides, and a challenge for the world to stand up for justice, peace, and democracy.