Authoritarianism and Its Casualties in Russia
The study of political science and sociology often places a spotlight on the themes of power, conflict, and change. Looking at the world today, it becomes increasingly evident how the struggle for power breeds conflict, instigating changes both subtle and profound. Samuel Huntington, in his seminal work ‘The Third Wave,’ throws light on this power dynamic. He identifies a division among the ruling elite as a key indicator of an authoritarian regime’s vulnerability. When the establishment starts to fracture, it triggers a domino effect of changes. Without such fissures, autocrats can comfortably maintain their grip on power. Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad’s enduring reign underlines this principle.
Let’s consider the situation in Russia today. Yevgeny Prigozhin, a prominent Russian businessman with links to the Kremlin, attempted a rebellion against Vladimir Putin’s regime, but it was quelled within a couple of days. Prigozhin’s inability to rally public support from key Kremlin figures possibly influenced his decision to abort the coup. Putin’s tenure has been marked by his iron-fisted suppression of liberal dissent and his effective neutralization of nationalist opposition. Much like Winston Churchill’s metaphor of power struggles being akin to a fight under a rug, only when the dust settles do we see whose bones remain. In this instance, they were Prigozhin’s.
While the Kremlin’s power dynamics are murky, the state of Russian society is starkly evident. A startling statistic serves to underscore this reality: a 15-year-old Russian male shares the same life expectancy as his Haitian counterpart. For a nation as wealthy and educated as Russia, this statistic is a glaring anomaly. The country’s vast natural resources and high literacy rates put it on par with, if not ahead of, many European nations. Yet, it is undergoing a demographic crisis similar to those seen in lesser developed countries.
In a 2022 working paper, a scholar specializing in demography pointed out Russia’s alarming population decline over the past three decades. From 2013 to 2015, deaths exceeded births, mirroring trends in many industrialized nations. However, Russia’s escalating mortality rate is a disturbing outlier. In 2019, before the impacts of COVID-19 and the war, a 15-year-old boy in Russia was projected to live another 53.7 years, according to the World Health Organization. This falls below the life expectancies for males of the same age in countries like Yemen, Mali, and South Sudan.
Traditionally, education is correlated with better health outcomes. However, Russia defies this trend. Despite boasting educational levels akin to first-world countries, it suffers fourth-world mortality rates amongst its working-age population. This dichotomy deepens when considering the country’s underperformance in the knowledge economy. Russia, with its wealth of well-trained individuals, particularly in the sciences, lags far behind in international patent applications and innovation. This is a significant decline from Soviet-era standards, further exacerbated by the exodus of educated Russians following the conflict with Ukraine.
So, what explains this paradox? Alexander Etkind, in his book ‘Russia Against Modernity,’ argues that Putin’s Russia has morphed into a state that profits from its natural resources but fails to deliver on the welfare and prosperity expected of a modern nation. The country’s rampant corruption and staggering wealth inequality, the most drastic rise seen post-Soviet era, are symptoms of this malaise.
The anti-modern stance of Putin’s regime post the 2011–2012 protests, which he blamed on then Secretary Hillary Clinton, has entrenched this reality. To Putin, the West embodies social, economic, and political modernization forces that could ‘infect’ Russia, eroding its traditional values. As a result, he rejects modernization, advocating for a ‘traditional’ Russia steeped in religion, conventional morality, xenophobia, and strict gender conformity.
It’s crucial to analyze what this means for Russia’s future. As it stands, the country is precariously poised between its resource-driven wealth and its societal decay. It is a nation wrestling with the chasm between its educational prowess and its dismal health and innovation statistics. A state torn between the allure of modernization and the security of tradition.
Russia today symbolizes a paradox — an educated yet unhealthy population, a wealthy yet impoverished nation, a modern yet traditional society. Its state is a cautionary tale of how political power plays, corruption, and rejection of modernity can cripple a nation’s progress and undercut its potential.
There is a pressing need for Russia to embrace modernization and discard its cloak of traditionalism, to heed the calls for a fairer society and transparent governance. Failure to do so will only deepen its crisis, making it harder to claw its way back to a state of balance and prosperity. In the end, the authoritarian grip on power may persist, but the casualties — economic, societal, and individual — are far too many and far too great to ignore.
