Asymmetric Warfare: Russia’s Playbook in Ukraine and Beyond

Asymmetric warfare has emerged as the go-to strategy for states that can’t match the military might of their adversaries. It is warfare that punches above its weight, exploiting vulnerabilities instead of confronting strength with strength. Among the most notorious practitioners of this strategy is Russia, particularly in its dealings with Ukraine and other NATO allies. And why not? It’s easier to exploit vulnerabilities, such as political division and lack of public awareness, than to go toe-to-toe with an adversary like NATO, which boasts a far superior military budget and technological capabilities.

The term “asymmetric warfare” sounds like it’s pulled straight from a military handbook, but it’s not just about soldiers and guns. It encompasses a variety of tactics — guerrilla warfare, cyberattacks, information operations, and even proxy wars — that aim to undercut the opponent in unexpected ways.

The Russian Blueprint

Russia’s playbook in Ukraine exemplifies what can be termed ‘weapons of the weak.’ Whether it’s supporting separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine or launching cyberattacks against Ukrainian infrastructure, Russia has been making covert, moves. What makes these tactics particularly pernicious is their deniability, which lends Russia a shroud of ambiguity. For example, Russia has denied any involvement in the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014, despite evidence linking it to the incident. Russia has also used its veto power in the UN Security Council to block resolutions condemning its actions in Ukraine. By avoiding direct confrontation and accountability, Russia has sought to undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and security, as well as NATO’s credibility and cohesion.

By spreading propaganda and disinformation, Russia has used the power of the internet and social media to sow seeds of discord and undermine democratic institutions. This form of warfare is not just about manipulating public opinion; it’s about shaking the foundations of democracy itself, eroding trust and deepening divisions. Some examples of Russian information warfare include spreading false or misleading videos on YouTube, using Twitter accounts of Russian embassies to post propaganda and unusual content, and conducting cyberattacks on media outlets and political organizations in various countries. These tactics aim to create confusion, polarize public debates, and weaken the credibility of democratic actors.

The Challenges and Limitations

Yet, Russia’s asymmetric strategies are not without challenges and limitations. Ukraine has proven to be a resilient adversary, bolstered by international support from NATO and the European Union. Economic sanctions and military assistance from these entities have helped Ukraine defend its territorial integrity, showcasing the limitations of Russia’s indirect approaches. According to a recent survey, almost 80% of Ukrainians support Ukraine’s accession to NATO, which would further strengthen its security and deterrence. However, two NATO states, Slovakia and Hungary, have blocked a $52.8 billion aid package for Ukraine, citing corruption and inefficiency in Kiev. Ukraine is also seeking to enhance its technological capabilities, collaborating with companies such as SpaceX and Palantir for internet access and intelligence.

Adaptation and Deterrence: The Way Forward

So, what should Ukraine and NATO do? Simply put, adaptation is key. As pointed out by Brittany Beaulieu and David Salvo in their policy brief on NATO and Asymmetric Threats, the alliance must elevate the discussion of hybrid threats within its councils and clarify thresholds for coordinated responses. Public-private partnerships could offer new avenues for combating asymmetric threats, and resilience-building must be invested in at both the state and community levels.

Moreover, the return of symmetric warfare, driven by the rise of peer competitors and technological advancements, indicates that military doctrines must remain fluid. Adaptability and the capacity to respond to both asymmetric and symmetric threats will be vital in navigating the complex landscape of modern warfare. Symmetric warfare refers to conflicts between states or coalitions that have comparable military capabilities and use similar tactics and strategies.

In Conclusion

Russia’s asymmetric warfare strategy is not a magic bullet for geopolitical dominance. It’s a calculated risk, with its own sets of pros and cons. For Ukraine and NATO, understanding the nuances of these strategies and adapting their own approaches are crucial to not just surviving but potentially neutralizing this form of warfare. But let’s be clear: this is not a static battlefield. As methods evolve, so must strategies to counter them. The fog of war has never been so thick yet so permeable, and in this blurry landscape, vigilance and adaptability are not just virtues but necessities.