Assad, the UAE, and Russia: The Political Dance of Dysfunction

6 min readDec 25, 2024

Let me tell you a story about Bashar al-Assad, the man who clung to power in Syria for decades like gum stuck under your shoe. Between 2021 and 2023, ol’ Bashar decided to cozy up to the UAE. Why? Because his bromance with Russia was starting to look like a bad high school relationship — all drama, no substance. But spoiler alert: even the best juggling acts can’t last forever. By 2024, Assad’s regime finally fell apart, proving that survival of the sneakiest only works until everyone’s tired of your act.

Assad and Russia: A Friendship That Fizzled

Ah, Russia and Syria. The dynamic duo. Or at least they were until things got complicated… because they always do. If their alliance was a rom-com, it’d be called “From Russia with Shrugs.”

1. Reconstruction? More Like Ruins

You know how after a party someone’s stuck cleaning up? Well, Syria’s reconstruction was the party nobody wanted to pay for. Russia’s broke — too many sanctions, too much Ukraine, and not enough vodka to numb the pain. Assad looked around and realized his sugar daddy couldn’t pick up the tab. Enter the UAE, waving fat stacks and looking like the answer to his prayers. “Reconstruction? Sure, why not — just don’t ask about ethics,” said the UAE, probably. But even that couldn’t save Assad when the cracks in his power base grew too wide to patch.

2. Russia’s Attention Deficit

Russia got distracted. Ukraine became their new shiny object, and Syria? Yesterday’s news. Assad’s sitting there thinking, “Wait, what about me? You promised me tanks and love letters!” But no, Putin’s busy playing Risk in Eastern Europe, and Assad’s left holding an empty vodka bottle. With fewer Russian resources propping him up, Assad’s house of cards started swaying in the wind.

3. Playing the Field

Here’s the kicker: Russia’s playing both sides. They’re buddying up to Turkey and Israel while Assad’s left twiddling his thumbs. Imagine inviting your friends to dinner, and they spend the whole time texting your ex. That’s how Assad felt. So what does he do? He slides into the UAE’s DMs with a “Hey, stranger. You up?” But as his regime crumbled, even these alliances couldn’t keep him afloat.

4. Money Talks, Everyone Else Walks

Assad’s broke. His country’s broke. And Russia’s piggy bank is looking pretty empty. What’s a dictator to do? He’s gotta find someone with cash — and fast. The UAE’s got deep pockets, so Assad’s like, “Let’s talk business,” while probably wondering how to pronounce “petrodollars” in Arabic. But money can only paper over so many cracks, and by the end, the cracks had become chasms.

Why the UAE? Because Who Else?

If you’re wondering why Assad turned to the UAE, it’s simple: they’re pragmatic, rich, and don’t mind getting their hands dirty. They’re like that one friend who says, “I’m not here to judge — just tell me how much you need.”

1. Pragmatism Over Principles

The UAE doesn’t care about Assad’s baggage. War crimes? Dictatorship? Meh. They’re thinking, “Let’s stabilize the region, make some cash, and call it a day.” Assad’s thinking, “Great! Someone who doesn’t judge me for being me.” It was the perfect toxic friendship until the regime’s collapse made Assad more liability than asset.

2. Validation and Cash Flow

For Assad, the UAE’s friendship wasn’t just about the money — though that helps. It was about legitimacy. The UAE’s saying, “You’re still one of us, buddy,” and that was music to Assad’s ears. But as his regime fell apart, even the UAE couldn’t keep pretending he was a safe bet. The cool kids’ table doesn’t like having its reputation dragged down by a failed dictator.

The Bigger Picture: Assad’s Survival Instincts — and Failure

Assad’s moves were all about staying alive in the political jungle. Sure, Russia was still his main squeeze, but he wasn’t putting all his eggs in one basket anymore. The man was a dictator, not an idiot… until the fall proved otherwise.

Assad’s Take:

Breaking the Isolation: Assad tried breaking out of his pariah status. By playing nice with the UAE, he thought he could show the world he was ready to mingle. Turns out, mingling doesn’t help when your entire power structure collapses.
Future-Proofing: Assad saw Russia’s unreliability and turned to the UAE as a lifeline. But future-proofing doesn’t work when the present falls apart faster than you can plan.

Russia’s Take:

Letting It Slide: Putin wasn’t thrilled about Assad’s side hustle with the UAE, but he was too busy to care. Turns out, a distracted ally isn’t much of an ally when the chips are down. Assad’s fall might even be a relief for Moscow, as it clears one more problem off their plate.

Conclusion: A Regime That Couldn’t Last

Bashar al-Assad’s outreach to the UAE wasn’t just diplomacy; it was desperation dressed up as strategy. He juggled alliances like a clown at a circus, hoping none of them dropped. In the end, they all did. Russia’s distracted, the UAE’s pragmatic, and Assad’s regime? History.

And the UAE? They’ll be fine. Rich, pragmatic, and ambitious, they’ll move on to the next opportunity without skipping a beat. Assad’s story, on the other hand, will be filed under “Cautionary Tales for Dictators.” Politics, folks. It’s messy, it’s dirty, and it’s always entertaining — until it isn’t. If you’re not laughing, you’re crying… and Assad’s probably doing a lot of crying right now.

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