Analysing what Ukraine’s Dnieper breakthrough could mean
The war between Ukraine and Russia has entered a new phase as winter approaches. While the fighting continues in the east, where Russia has been trying to encircle Ukrainian forces in Avdiyivka and Bakhmut, a major development has occurred in the south, where Ukraine claims to have crossed the Dnieper river and established a bridgehead on the opposite bank.
The Dnieper river, which runs from north to south across Ukraine, has been a natural barrier between the two sides since Russia withdrew from the Kherson region a year ago. Ukraine has been conducting sporadic raids across the river, but lacked air superiority and heavy equipment to make a significant breakthrough.
That changed on November 16, when Andriy Yermak, the chief of staff of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, announced that Ukrainian troops had successfully deployed three brigades to the left bank of the Dnieper river in Kherson Oblast. He said that this was the first step in liberating Crimea, the peninsula that Russia illegally annexed in 2014.
Russia, however, denied that Ukraine had made any progress, and said that its forces had repelled the attack and inflicted heavy losses on the enemy. Vladimir Saldo, the Russian-installed official in charge of the occupied areas of Kherson, said that Ukrainian forces were trapped in the village of Krynky, and faced a “fiery hell” from Russian reinforcements.
The truth may lie somewhere in between, as independent analysts have confirmed that Ukraine has gained some ground in the village of Krynky, about 2 km inland from the river, but also faced strong resistance from Russian air and artillery strikes. The situation remains fluid and volatile, as both sides are likely to escalate their efforts in the coming days.
Why is the Dnieper crossing important?
The Dnieper crossing, if consolidated, could have significant implications for the war. For Ukraine, it could open a new front in the south, and allow it to transfer vital equipment and supplies across the river. This could give Ukraine an edge in breaking through to Crimea, or at least put pressure on Russia to divert some of its forces from the east.
For Russia, the Dnieper crossing could pose a serious threat to its control over Crimea, and its access to the Black Sea. Russia has been building up its military presence and infrastructure in Crimea, and has been using it as a base for projecting power and influence in the region. Russia also relies on a bridge that connects Crimea to the Russian mainland, which could be vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks.
This development could also have political and psychological effects on both sides. For Ukraine, it could boost the morale and confidence of its troops and population, and demonstrate its resolve and capability to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. For Russia, it could undermine its narrative and legitimacy, and expose its weaknesses and vulnerabilities.
What are the challenges and risks?
This advance of the Ukrainian army, however, is not without challenges and risks. For Ukraine, it could face a fierce counterattack from Russia, which has superior air power and artillery, and could use its naval and amphibious forces to launch a flanking maneuver. Ukraine also has to deal with the possibility of sabotage and infiltration from pro-Russian separatists and paramilitary groups in the area.
For Russia, it could face international condemnation and isolation, and increased sanctions and pressure from the West, especially the United States, which has been providing military and diplomatic support to Ukraine. Russia has pounded the southern Ukrainian cities of Kherson and Beryslav, destroying about 30 buildings and injuring civilians, as a response to the Ukrainian advance. Russia has also threatened to use “hellfire” against the Ukrainian soldiers who had crossed the river.
