AI and Warfare: Unpacking the Golden Horde Program
Introduction
The Golden Horde program initiated by the US Department of Defense has pushed the boundaries of military technology, introducing artificial intelligence (AI) modules into existing munitions to enhance their target engagement capabilities. Despite being in its experimental phase, the program has shown promising results that could redefine the face of modern warfare.
This article aims to dissect the workings of the Golden Horde program, its implications on the efficiency and efficacy of warfare, and the obstacles it faces in its path to full-scale deployment.
The Golden Horde Program and Its Full-Scale Test
In December 2020, a significant milestone was reached in the Golden Horde program, with the successful execution of a full-scale test. Two modified GBU-39s were dropped from an F-16 on a polygon, which had multiple target types positioned. The GBU-39s were equipped with AI modules that allowed them to communicate and coordinate their actions.
During the test, they were successful in detecting a GPS jammer amidst other targets, demonstrating their capacity to identify different threats and prioritize actions based on the predefined rules of engagement. Despite a software error that prevented target engagement, the test confirmed the fundamental feasibility of the concept.
Redefining the Concept of NCA (Networked, Collaborative, Autonomous) Munitions
The central rationale of the Golden Horde program lies in fostering a Networked, Collaborative, and Autonomous (NCA) system that can deploy numerous munitions against intricate air defense systems. The system emphasizes munitions dividing tasks according to the rules of engagement and predetermined scenarios.
The introduction of cascading decision-making processes based on algorithms enhances the functionality of the munitions and introduces a new level of sophistication in their operation. These AI-enabled algorithms are not new to military technology; they were extensively tested and used during the X-45 drone trials.
The Future of Air Warfare: Automation, Not Empowerment
The Golden Horde program paints a vivid picture of the future of air warfare. It encompasses remote effectors of various sizes, swarms of munitions, manned aircraft, and ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) systems.
A foreseeable scenario includes missiles dropped en masse, attacking air defense sites in a swarm, with information gathered by ISR remote effectors. This swarm would be backed by additional munitions assigned for decoy purposes, clearing the way for manned aircraft to engage in the most delicate phases of the operation.
This vision presents a significant strategic advantage for Western air forces. The cost efficiency of producing dozens of remote effectors for the price of a single manned aircraft allows for the regaining of a numerical advantage lost in recent years. It also increases overall efficiency, enabling a small number of manned aircraft to command and control swarms of drones, ultimately delivering a highly precise and robust offensive capability.
Obstacles on the Path of the Golden Horde
Despite the immense potential and strategic advantage the Golden Horde program brings, it faces several obstacles in its path to large-scale deployment.
Technical Obstacles
The Golden Horde program has to overcome several technical bottlenecks, including those related to AI technology, data links, and the complex issue of combat clouds. While significant advancements have been made over the last two decades, there is still a long way to go before these technologies can be reliably integrated into military operations.
Military Obstacles
The implementation of AI and automation will inevitably result in drastic changes in military practices, from ISR operations to planning. These changes will require extensive training and adaptation both in military staff offices and cockpits, which can prove to be a significant challenge.
Political Obstacles
The politics surrounding AI-related technologies can pose a formidable obstacle to the Golden Horde program. Concerns regarding the ethical implications of AI in warfare, along with the system’s complexity, might lead to rejection or misinterpretation of the program.
Additionally, the cost-effectiveness of AI technology in warfare might be misinterpreted as a means of reducing the number of aircraft, thereby affecting military fiscal policies. Given the sensitive nature of AI technology, export control regulations might also pose a significant hurdle.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Golden Horde program presents an innovative vision of warfare, potentially transforming the way air forces conduct operations. The program is not without its obstacles, but overcoming them might pave the way for an era of AI-assisted warfare. In the face of these challenges, the political, military, and technical communities will need to work in unison to harness the full potential of the Golden Horde program.
