Abramovich and the oligarchs could force Putin out of power

The war in Ukraine has entered a critical phase, as Russia continues to escalate its military aggression and defy international pressure. The fate of Ukraine, and the future of Europe, hangs in the balance. But there is another factor that could tip the scales in favor of peace and democracy: the role of the Russian oligarchs.

The oligarchs are a group of wealthy and powerful businessmen who emerged from the chaotic privatization of state assets in the 1990s. They have amassed enormous fortunes and influence, both in Russia and abroad. Some of them, like Roman Abramovich, the former owner of Chelsea Football Club, have become well-known figures in the West. Others, like Alisher Usmanov, the largest shareholder of Arsenal Football Club, have kept a lower profile.

The oligarchs have a complex and ambivalent relationship with Vladimir Putin, the Russian president. On the one hand, they owe their wealth and status to his patronage and protection. On the other hand, they fear his unpredictability and authoritarianism. They have seen how he has cracked down on some of his former allies, like Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who was jailed for a decade on trumped-up charges, or Boris Berezovsky, who died in exile in London under mysterious circumstances.

The oligarchs have also benefited from the integration of Russia with the global economy, especially the European Union, which is their largest trading partner and market. They have invested heavily in Europe, buying up assets, companies, and properties. They have also enjoyed the freedoms and opportunities that Europe offers, such as travel, education, and culture.

The war in Ukraine, however, threatens to disrupt and destroy this lucrative and comfortable arrangement. The Western sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its annexation of Crimea and its support for the separatists in Donbas have hit the oligarchs hard, freezing their assets, restricting their access to finance, and damaging their reputation. The war has also increased the risk of a direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO, which could have catastrophic consequences for the region and the world.

The oligarchs, therefore, have a strong incentive to end the war and restore stability and cooperation between Russia and the West. They have the means and the leverage to do so, as they have access to Putin and his inner circle, as well as to influential politicians and business leaders in Europe and beyond. They also have the motivation, as they are concerned about their own survival and legacy, as well as the future of their country and their children.

This is why the British government should engage with the oligarchs and persuade them to use their influence to pressure Putin to stop the war and withdraw from Ukraine. This would not be an easy or straightforward task, as the oligarchs are not a homogeneous or cohesive group, and they have different interests and agendas. Some of them, like Abramovich, have already been sanctioned by the West and may feel alienated and resentful. Others, like Usmanov, may still have some loyalty and sympathy for Putin and his nationalist agenda.

But we should not give up on the oligarchs, as they could be the key to unlocking a peaceful and lasting solution to the Ukraine crisis. We should appeal to their rationality and pragmatism, as well as their sense of responsibility and patriotism. The west should offer them incentives and guarantees, such as easing the sanctions, protecting their assets, and facilitating their integration into the European community.

The oligarchs have the power and the opportunity to change the course of history and to force Putin out of power, or at least to moderate his behavior. They have a choice to make: to continue to support a regime that is leading Russia to isolation and ruin, or to join the forces of democracy and progress that are shaping the future of Europe and the world. The west should help them make the right choice, for the sake of Ukraine, Russia, and humanity.