A Region on Fire: U.S.-Iran Rivalry and Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Middle East has been a geopolitical hotspot for decades, and recent events signal that the tension is far from dissipating. In the last few weeks, we’ve seen a dramatic escalation in actions and reactions from key players: the United States, Iran, Israel, and their respective allies and adversaries. Some of these actions include:

• U.S. airstrikes on Iranian-backed militias in Syria, which the Pentagon said were in response to 19 attacks on U.S. bases and personnel in Iraq and Syria since mid-October.
• U.S. military buildup in the region, with additional troops, missile defense systems, fighter squadrons, and a carrier strike group deployed to deter Iran and protect U.S. interests.
• Israel-Hamas conflict, which erupted after weeks of tensions over Jerusalem and resulted in hundreds of casualties, thousands of rockets fired, and widespread destruction in Gaza.
• Regional repercussions, such as missile strikes on Egypt’s Taba resort town near Israel border, protests and clashes in Lebanon and Syria5, and diplomatic efforts by Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, and others to broker a ceasefire.

When Defense Becomes Offense: U.S. Airstrikes on Iranian-backed Militias

The United States recently carried out its first military action under the Biden administration by launching airstrikes on weapon storage facilities near Bukamal in Syria. These facilities are allegedly linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which supports various armed groups in Iraq and Syria. The Pentagon justified these actions by pointing to 19 attacks on U.S. bases and personnel in Iraq and Syria since mid-October, which left 21 U.S. personnel injured. These attacks allegedly used Iranian-supplied drones. The airstrikes were intended to send a message to Iran and its proxies to stop their aggression and deter future attacks, as well as to demonstrate the U.S. commitment to protect its interests and allies in the region.

Shield and Sword: U.S. Force Protection Posture

Simultaneously, the U.S. is ramping up its military presence in the region. The Pentagon has sent additional troops and missile defense systems like the Patriot and Avenger missile systems, as well as a THAAD battery. Fighter squadrons will operate out of Jordan, and the Eisenhower carrier strike group is headed to the North Arabian Sea. The U.S. has between 60,000 and 70,000 troops in the Middle East, according to the U.S. Central Command, and has announced plans to deploy thousands of additional troops to the region amid the heightened tensions. The U.S. military presence in the Middle East covers several countries, including Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.

Israel and Hamas: A Perpetual Cycle of Violence

While the U.S. and Iran play out their drama, another conflict festers closer to the Mediterranean. Israel faces ongoing rocket attacks from Gaza, orchestrated by Hamas. Israel’s retaliation has been swift and decisive, with intensified air strikes and limited ground incursions into Gaza. The violence has killed and injured civilians on both sides, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian situation in Gaza. The conflict has also sparked protests and clashes in the West Bank, Jerusalem, and inside Israel, where Arab and Jewish citizens have turned against each other. The international community has called for an immediate ceasefire, but the prospects of a diplomatic solution seem bleak. The war has entered its fourth week, with no end in sight.

The Domino Effect

These interlinked conflicts serve as a tinderbox, ready to ignite the wider region. The U.S.-Iran tensions can easily spill over to affect Israel-Hamas dynamics and vice versa. Any miscalculation or miscommunication can lead to an even larger conflict, pulling in other regional and global powers. Some of the possible scenarios are:

• Israel invades Gaza: Israel launches a full-scale ground operation to destroy Hamas and its rocket arsenal. This would result in high casualties on both sides and a humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Hamas could retaliate with more rockets and suicide attacks inside Israel. The conflict could also trigger a backlash from other Palestinian factions, such as Islamic Jihad and Fatah, as well as regional allies of Hamas, such as Iran, Hezbollah, Syria, and Turkey.
• Iran attacks U.S. targets: Iran responds to the U.S. airstrikes on its proxies in Syria by launching missile strikes on U.S. bases and allies in the region, such as Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Iran could also activate its network of militias and proxies to attack U.S. personnel, embassies, and interests in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Afghanistan. The U.S. could retaliate with more airstrikes and sanctions on Iran.
• Hezbollah joins the war: Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militia and political party backed by Iran, escalates its attacks on Israel from the northern border. Hezbollah has a large arsenal of rockets and missiles that can reach deep into Israel. Israel could respond with airstrikes and ground incursions into Lebanon, as it did in 2006. This could destabilize Lebanon further and spark sectarian violence among its diverse communities.
• Turkey intervenes in Syria: Turkey, a NATO member and a regional rival of Iran, intervenes in Syria to support the Syrian opposition and counter Iran’s influence. Turkey has already deployed troops and proxies in northern Syria to fight against the Kurdish forces allied with the U.S… Turkey could also clash with Russia, which supports the Assad regime and has a military presence in Syria. This could create a major confrontation between NATO and Russia in the Middle East.
• Egypt mediates a ceasefire: Egypt, a key ally of the U.S. and a neighbor of Israel and Gaza, mediates a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Egypt has played this role before in previous rounds of violence. Egypt could use its leverage over Hamas, which relies on Egypt for access to the outside world, to pressure it to stop firing rockets at Israel. Egypt could also coordinate with other regional actors, such as Qatar, Turkey, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, to facilitate a diplomatic solution that addresses the underlying causes of the conflict.